Climate change policy in 2025

Adaptation over mitigation is imperative with priority for indigenous solutions

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ISLAMABAD:

The climate change debate in Pakistan revolves around fancy jargon, buzzwords, and donor-driven policies. Whether you comprehend it or not, it has become fashionable to talk about climate change.

The government, civil society, and think tanks invented new slogans like "green transition," "just green transition," "electric vehicles for climate change," etc, to pretend that they are serious about it.

However, most of the time, all efforts and pretended seriousness culminate in self-projection with no results. Why? Because they could not support their talks with concrete actions. The government failed to devise policies or actions according to ground realities.

For example, the analysis of ground realities and situation demands that Pakistan focus on agriculture, water, and livelihoods to lower its impact on common citizens.

Agriculture is a major source of livelihood, the backbone of the economy, and a leading factor in food security. However, it is highly vulnerable to climate impacts, such as floods and droughts. The number of days for cropping is also on the decline, and there are strong indications that cropping patterns will change due to climate change. Water availability and quality are threatened, which are essential for agriculture and human life.

Unfortunately, Pakistan is playing a jargon game. It focuses more on mitigation than adaptation. It is a pity that the most important issue, adaptation, does not get the required attention from the policymakers and civil society.

For example, the analysis of the previous Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) indicates that they were more focused on mitigation than adaptation. The NDCs failed to acknowledge that adaptation must be a top priority.

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, and its contribution to climate change is negligible. On the other hand, the mitigation policies and actions were also short-sighted, which has created multidimensional challenges for the country. The most prominent example is the conversion of transport system to CNG.

A few years back, Pakistan started to convert its transport system to CNG. The government was convincing people to shift to CNG, as it would help save foreign reserves. Pakistan erected a comprehensive infrastructure to support the initiative and installed CNG stations nationwide. Pakistan showcased it globally as a model for the green transition.

However, Pakistan lost enthusiasm after the natural gas shortage. It started to move away from the CNG transportation system and shifted back to petrol or diesel. The immature policy and the lack of a well-prepared action plan cost it and are still costing it on many fronts.

First, natural gas reserves started to deplete at an alarming speed. With time, gas load-shedding became a new normal, and people started to agitate against the situation.

Second, Pakistan had to start importing LNG to bridge the gap between demand and supply. The argument of saving money and lowering the export bill was no longer valid. Third, household gas prices started to rise, and affordability was questioned. This also challenged the argument for saving money and lowering prices against petrol or diesel.

Fourth, the business community faced the worst consequences. The private business established a vast infrastructure to support the transition. They built hundreds of CNG fuelling stations and also spent billions of rupees on establishing CNG kits and cylinder manufacturing units to support the booming CNG transportation sector. They are in a fix now.

Fifth, Pakistan had to spend billions of dollars importing equipment, kits, and cylinders. Sixth, individual consumers or vehicle owners also spent money converting their vehicles to CNG. They were hoping that it would help them to save money. It helped them initially, but the process was reversed with the depletion of CNG's national reserves.

Seventh, the reserves have been depleted, and citizens faced the consequences. Now, the government is unable to provide connections to homes. The situation is so bad that households in most elite sectors in Islamabad do not have gas connections.

Second, most recently, Pakistan started blindly promoting solar energy without considering agreements with IPPs. It initiated the process of shifting government buildings to solar power, and the parliament building strived to become the first solar-powered building.

Due to the activism of think tanks, the government is facing the problem of payment to IPPs, as solar installation decreases revenue. The government has no choice but to increase electricity prices to fill the gap.

Moreover, household investments could not deliver the benefits promised during the solar promotion. For example, solar installation was highlighted as lowering the electricity bill, but the government lowers the savings by increasing prices.

This policy greatly impacts the poor and lower middle class. They do not have the resources to install solar panels, but they have to pay inflated electricity bills.

Instead of learning from past failures or the negative consequences of ill-designed and implemented policies, Pakistan is blindly promoting EVs without a proper understanding of ground realities, needs assessment, and policy.

Ground facts tell us that more than 24.6% of the population still has no electricity connection. Second, Pakistan, which has 644 kWh of electricity consumption, ranks among the countries with the lowest per capita electricity consumption. This is due to low industrial growth and business activities.

Third, 59% of the electricity generation comes from fossil fuels, so what's the point of generating electricity from fossil fuels and running EVs? Thus, EVs can create the problem of the gap between supply and demand.

Therefore, many experts are raising concerns that the government is trying to create another crisis like CNG. They are suggesting that before implementing the EV policy, Pakistan must analyse the ground realities and prepare a plan for implementation.

In conclusion, Pakistan can learn from past mistakes and enter 2025 with a new mindset and devise a climate change agenda according to the needs. It should start by devising a well-researched policy and an implementation framework according to the ground realities.

A policy that recognises Pakistan's weaknesses, like the financial crunch, per capita energy availability, bad policy choices, and its strengths, like the potential of hydropower, coal, nuclear energy, etc. Second, adaptation must be a top priority, and the government should put all efforts into implementing the national adaptation plan in its true spirit.

Third, the government should prepare its agenda by engaging indigenous wisdom and domestic institutions such as public universities, not donor-funded consultants. Then, this agenda should be shared with the donor community, and they should be asked if they want to partner in implementing it.

Fourth, this does not mean that Pakistan should abandon mitigation; rather, it should devise a mitigation policy and action framework. It will help to pursue the green transition, pave the way for the successful implementation of the EVs policy, and assist in pursuing a sustainable development path.

The writer is a political economist and a visiting research fellow at Hebei University, China