American presidential election and Pakistan

Trump's victory signals regime change in the US, raising questions about future US-Pakistan ties and democracy.

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The world is changing and the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of United States sends a clear message to the entire world: the will of the people matters; and if history is not just about the past but more about change then democracy provides the most suitable way to bring about that change. Trump is calling his victory as the greatest in the political history of America. In some ways he is right, as having been unable to achieve a second term in the 2020 election and defeated by Joe Biden, his coming back to power with a huge support of American people is a fabulous electoral victory for him.

More than anything else, the current American elections have brought about a regime change. Any regime would be defined as a system that is rules-based and also based on political structures and institutions through which rules are exercised. The outgoing Biden regime presided on the violation of international rules and would easily stand out as the worst American regime to prefer inaction when human rights were being violated in Gaza and elsewhere in the world. The regime's epitaph can be written in words highlighting how it handled two international issues of great global importance that it misread, misled and mishandled - the war in Gaza and war in Ukraine. The needless provocation of Russia, NATO's continued eastward expansion, disregarding Russian sphere of influence and Biden regime's reliance on conduct of provocatory and predatory geopolitics were factors that contributed to limiting the chances of ending the war in Ukraine and prolonging and pushing it into its third year. The war in Gaza is the biggest humanitarian disaster that the helpless modern world has been forced to witness. In a changing world, where human rights and civil rights matter to the people and societies all over the world, the Biden regime lost all counts of checks and balances and backed Israel to find a solution to the problem in an old-fashioned way - through brute force.

The people of America gave a verdict that such a regime never deserved a second chance. For the American people, domestic politics mattered and for them the voting issues may have been race, gender, cost of living, etc. But overall, one can easily say that the resounding factor has been to see a regime change.

America is lucky because when the people realise and express their preference through the electoral system that realisation is allowed to become a reality and create possibilities of state realignment. Under the new American regime, the people of America are hoping to see an end to the war in Ukraine. They would also hope to see an end to the Israeli military operations that are resulting in the worst human atrocities ever committed against innocent civilians in the modern history. Domestically, they would like to see the back of illegal immigrants specially those with criminal records. America, they hope, will be clean again, safe again and less costly to live and survive.

In Pakistan, the American presidential election and its result means two clear things. The current regime should be unhappy on the loss of Joe Biden and would be unsure on how America under Trump may engage with them. Their great concern would be on what Trump may do when the autopsy report of Pakistan's democracy is put up to him. Democracy of course has been allowed to slowly die with thousand cuts under the current Pakistani government. When the president of the greatest power in the world occupies the highest office based on how people in his country were allowed to express their sentiment, supported and enabled to make their preference, he would most definitely not side with any regime that does otherwise and creates a political chaos instead of accepting people's will. The defeat of the American regime that supported such a political chaos in Pakistan has brought more smiles on the faces of the people than the fact that Trump will head the new American administration.

For Pakistan, the day of the American presidential election was a day for its soul searching. The system of rule in America much like Pakistan is guaranteed by the constitution. But unlike in America, in Pakistan the state rules people without being benevolent and without considering their preferences. Also, in Pakistan something other than democracy has started emerging - oligarchy, the group of rulers who are no more accessible to people. If the desire to channelise the wishes and preferences of people into a system is not a priority and if the rules and laws are arrived at without asking those that are affected by them then it is no more a democracy - it is an autocracy. Autocracy is derived from Greek words auto meaning self and kratos meaning power or strength. Thus it creates an absolutist central authority that takes away from the people their right to vote in or vote out a regime from power. Autocracy is everything that is not democratic and today Pakistan is a good model of a regime that showcases the prime example of autocracy.

There is a great debate going on in Pakistan as to what the new America under Trump will do for Pakistan. To pour cold water on the debate I would like to suggest that the US would indulge with Pakistan only if it can serve some of its strategic purposes. That at least has been the history of the US-Pakistan relationship so far. There is no Afghanistan and the US involvement there for Pakistan to cash in on. China, which is the great US competitor, is also not making great headway with the way it would have imagined culminating its CPEC project in Pakistan. So, there seems to be no urgency in the US establishment to view the China-Pakistan relations as great springboard to project Chinese power in the region and escalate its ascendency towards taking up a global leadership role. Pakistan is too far off and too irrelevant to seek President Trump's attention. Not any time soon, when he would have so many other burning issues to deal with.