Moldova heads to polls amid Russia interference allegations, EU accession

Election is marred by accusations of Russian meddling particularly through cash-for-votes schemes under Shor

On Sunday, Moldovan citizens are heading to the polls for a crucial presidential election and a referendum on enshrining EU membership as a constitutional goal.

The election, set against the backdrop of an ongoing East-West tug of war, has been marred by accusations of Russian meddling, particularly through cash-for-votes schemes linked to a fugitive oligarch, Ilan Shor.

Moldova, which declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, has long oscillated between pro-Russian and pro-Western political influences.

Since 2020, pro-EU President Maia Sandu has pursued a staunchly Western-oriented agenda, fast-tracking Moldova's EU accession process, especially after Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Sandu is seeking a second term, running against 10 other candidates, including pro-Russian figures who view Moldova as a "bridge" between the East and West.

The election comes at a critical moment for Moldova. A referendum on whether to enshrine EU membership in the constitution is being held alongside the presidential vote.

A "YES" outcome would make Moldova’s EU integration an irreversible constitutional goal.

However, this has drawn sharp opposition from pro-Russian factions, who have criticized Sandu’s handling of the economy and rising energy prices, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Accusations of Russian interference have cast a shadow over the election. Moldovan authorities have uncovered a major operation to influence voters through financial incentives, allegedly orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an oligarch convicted of fraud who is currently residing in Russia.

In recent months, cash mules arriving from Moscow were found carrying large sums of money, suspected to be intended for buying political influence. Moldova's anti-corruption prosecutor, Veronica Dragalin, has revealed that Shor's group has funneled millions into Moldova through a sanctioned Russian bank.

The goal, authorities allege, is to sway voters against the EU referendum and influence the presidential race.

Shor, whose party was banned last year, has openly opposed Moldova's EU accession and promised financial incentives to those who follow his political directives.

His influence remains strong in regions like Gagauzia, a pro-Russian autonomous region in southern Moldova, where his financial contributions and anti-EU messaging have gained him significant support.

Despite these challenges, Sandu remains committed to steering Moldova towards the West. At her final rally on Friday, she urged voters to support the EU referendum as the best path to peace and stability, condemning the “dirty money” being used to derail Moldova’s European aspirations.

Polling data suggests that Sandu will likely face a runoff election, as no candidate is expected to surpass the 50% threshold in the first round.

Her main challengers include Renato Usatii, a former mayor, and Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who supports closer ties with Russia.

If the referendum succeeds, it will solidify Moldova's path towards EU membership, a move that has divided the country politically.

With more than 3 million eligible voters, the stakes in this election are high, not only for Moldova’s political future but also for its geopolitical orientation.

Moldova’s decision at the polls will either cement its Western integration or signal a potential pivot back towards Russia's sphere of influence.