Bangladesh's Saint Martin's Island - a potential flashpoint

Saint Martin's Island, a small landmass in the Bay of Bengal under Bangladeshi sovereignty, is crucial to the country's geopolitical and economic dynamics. The island's closeness to Myanmar's Rakhine State, an area marked by ongoing violent conflicts, makes it strategically significant. The island's close vicinity to significant marine lanes in the Bay of Bengal has piqued the interest of global powers like China and the United States. The region is of strategic importance to both nations. Despite being an increasingly popular tourist attraction and a significant source of income for Bangladesh, the island's closeness to Myanmar has sparked worries about security.

In 2018, Myanmar ignited hostilities by putting Saint Martin's Island on its official map and disputing Bangladesh's sovereignty over the region. However, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) maintained Bangladesh's sovereignty over the island in 2012. Still, tensions remain because of Myanmar's military regime's close proximity to the island's borders. Sheikh Hasina, the then prime minister of Bangladesh, had rejected requests from foreign countries, primarily China and the US, to lease the island for military purposes, demonstrating her commitment to protecting Bangladesh's sovereignty.

Up to 8,000 tourists visited the island daily during the busiest times of the year until transport was disrupted by the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, greatly boosting its economy. Tensions in the area have led to travel restrictions and a dramatic decline in sales for local companies. To maintain the island's environmental health, the Hasina government declared the island as a marine protected area and passed regulations to handle tourism more sustainably. However, because of the conflict straddling the island's border with Myanmar, maintaining the island's security and economic stability has proven to be an ongoing challenge.

The US involvement in potentially destabilising Hasina's government is often viewed through the lens of larger geopolitical strategies, particularly concerning China's increasing influence in the region. Bangladesh, under Hasina's leadership, fostered closer economic and political ties with China, which has raised concerns in Washington. China's growing presence in Bangladesh, through infrastructure projects such as the Padma Bridge, is seen as part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which threatens to shift the balance of power in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The US views this development as a growing threat to its dominance in the region, leading to concerns over how Bangladesh's alignment with China could alter the geopolitical landscape.

Though the military dictatorship in Myanmar has come under international criticism for its policies, especially its role in the Rohingya issue, there may be some indirect support for the regime from US interests. Given the strategic significance of Saint Martin's Island, Washington may eventually choose to deploy Myanmar as a counterbalance to China in the region. If it controlled the island, the US could counterbalance Chinese power in the Bay of Bengal. The situation becomes more complex when one takes into account Dr Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate who has been a vocal opponent of Sheikh Hasina's administration. Concerns over a US-backed attempt to weaken Hasina's authority have been voiced by factions in Bangladesh. Yunus is widely believed to be closely associated with and supportive of American-backed resistance activities in Bangladesh. His reputation in the West and his critical comments about Hasina imply that some other foreign elements also participated in the effort to topple Hasina's government and install a more US-friendly administration in Bangladesh.

There are rumours that the US is interested in putting troops there, potentially even extending to Saint Martin's Island. By doing this, the US would be able to project power in the Bay of Bengal and counter China's growing influence there. Although Hasina had vehemently rejected all such proposals, asserting national sovereignty, these offers may be reconsidered by a new administration that is more receptive to US interests. This would increase US influence in the area and weaken China's strategic dominance over Bangladesh and the nearby waterways.

The violence that happened in Myanmar has put Saint Martin's Island in an even more challenging condition. Myanmar's military maneuvers near the island and the Naf River raised security concerns for Bangladesh. The unrest that had spilled over from Myanmar, including attacks on boats and military invasions, had put extreme strain on the ousted Hasina government. In addition to increasing Bangladesh's humanitarian requirements, over a million Rohingya refugees had left the unrest in Myanmar's Rakhine State, which created problems for the Hasina administration both domestically and internationally

Even though Hasina made an effort to keep her position on the Myanmar crisis neutral, if not pro-China, the US might have taken advantage of the tensions in the region to weaken her government. The US attempted to undermine Bangladesh's pro-China stance by inciting instability which in turn provided the conditions for a regime transition. The US was successful in installing a government in Bangladesh that reflected American interests more closely, especially in containing China's increasing influence in the Bay of Bengal and South Asia.

The intricate interactions between regional, national and international interests fighting for control of Bangladesh are exemplified by the political climate around Saint Martin's Island. However, because of the participation of major global powers, particularly China and the US, in the geopolitics of the region, the island's future remains unknown. Saint Martin's Island will continue to draw attention from around the world for some time to come because of its strategic significance, the ongoing conflict in Myanmar and the larger power struggle in the area.