At the recent NATO summit in Washington, the spotlight was not only on the war in Ukraine and the upcoming US presidential election, but also on the critical issue of upgrading Europe's defence capabilities.
Last year, NATO leaders initiated plans for a significant modernisation, prompted by increased concerns about Russian aggression. Although these plans were publicly disclosed, the detailed analysis of what these upgrades will entail has been largely conducted behind closed doors.
Recently, military planners have been evaluating the deficiencies across NATO armies, identifying the critical areas where shortfalls exist.
According to insiders, these gaps point to a potential multibillion-euro expense necessary to meet NATO's goals. The alliance aims to solidify these requirements into definitive targets for member nations by the autumn of 2025, which is when a regular defence ministers' meeting is scheduled.
Confidential sources have disclosed that the pressing needs include bolstering air defences, enhancing long-range missile capabilities, increasing troop numbers, resolving logistical challenges, and securing battlefield communications. The comprehensive cost of these upgrades has not been officially estimated by NATO yet.
Amid these strategic discussions, the US presidential election looms large, potentially impacting NATO's dynamics. The possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to power has stirred concerns among European leaders, given his previous criticisms of European NATO members for relying heavily on US military support.
British Defence Secretary John Healey highlighted at the summit that regardless of the US election's outcome, Europe must prepare for a shift in American focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, necessitating increased defence efforts from European NATO members. In line with this, a NATO official confirmed the discussions in Washington acknowledged that expenditures might need to exceed the current 2% of GDP target.
This year's summit also threw into sharp relief the growing pressures on NATO's unity, driven by financial constraints and differing views on the approach to Russia. With NATO at its highest alert level since the Cold War, the urgency of these upgrades is underscored by warnings from German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who mentioned a potential Russian attack within five years.
Reuters spoke to 12 military and civilian officials in Europe about the classified plans, who outlined six areas the 32-nation alliance has identified as the most pressing to address.
These include shortages in air defences and long-range missiles, troop numbers, ammunition, logistical headaches and a lack of secure digital communications on the battlefield, the conversations with NATO officials showed.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters more freely. NATO hasn't publicly given an estimate of the overall costs.
The findings show NATO faces a slog to achieve its goals at a time when its unity could be tested by budgetary constraints among senior European members, and differences over how hawkish its stance on Russia should be.
Crucially, this year's US presidential election has raised the spectre that NATO's preeminent power may be led by a man critical of the alliance – former President Donald Trump – who has accused European partners of taking advantage of US military support.
At the July 9-11 Washington summit, some European policymakers publicly acknowledged that, regardless of who wins November's election, the continent will need to hike its military spending.
"We need to recognise that for America, whatever the result of the presidential election, the priority is increasingly going to shift to the Indo-Pacific, so that the European nations in NATO must do more of the heavy lifting," British Defence Secretary John Healey said on the sidelines of the summit.
In response to Reuters' questions, a NATO official said the alliance's leaders had agreed in Washington that in many cases expenditure beyond 2% of GDP would be needed to remedy shortfalls. He noted that 23 members now meet the 2% mininum requirement, or exceed it.
"Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, European Allies will need to continue to increase their defence capabilities, forces' readiness and ammunition stocks," the NATO official said.
NATO's first serious overhaul since the end of the Cold War will pivot the alliance back to the defence of Europe against a possible Russian attack, after years of more distant missions in the likes of Afghanistan.
Reuters has previously reported that NATO planners believe it will need between 35 and 50 extra brigades to withstand a Russian attack. A brigade consists of 3,000 to 7,000 troops, which would mean anywhere from 105,000 to 350,000 soldiers.
It means, for example, that Germany would need 3-5 extra brigades or 20,000 to 30,000 additional combat troops, the source said, effectively one more division on top of the three divisions Berlin is working to equip at the moment.
Germany had 36 Patriot air defence units when it was NATO's frontline state during the Cold War and even then it relied on support from NATO allies. Today, German forces are down to 9 Patriot units, after donating three to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022 and need to drastically scale up.
The cost will be considerable. Berlin just ordered four Patriot units at a price tag of 1.35 billion euros.
In a sign of the budgetary challenges already weighing on Europe's largest economy, Germany is planning to halve its 2025 military aid to Ukraine. Berlin instead hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven, Reuters reported.
The enormity of the task ahead is clear as NATO planners estimate the need for significantly more brigades to deter or withstand a Russian offensive. This includes a considerable increase in German combat troops and air defences, reflecting the broader necessity for heightened European military readiness.
Furthermore, logistical planners are focusing on the details of supporting forces in potential conflict zones, including transportation and cybersecurity measures to counteract possible Russian cyberattacks.
Overall, the discussions and plans unveiled at the NATO summit paint a picture of an alliance at a pivotal moment, needing to strengthen both its capabilities and resolve in the face of evolving global threats.
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