Navigating India’s treacherous path towards regional stability

There are no meaningful changes in the Modi’s new cabinet, with four key ministries held by diehard BJP members. All those ministers who played key roles in setting domestic agenda revolving around Hindutva militancy and those who ran foreign policy have retained their ministerial portfolios. It plainly suggests unwillingness to address the communal tensions and no real move forward towards inclusive governance in the context of Indian internal politics. On the external front, it means keeping no contact with Pakistan and countering China while benefiting from the China-US competition. Thus far, this policy has helped Modi secure the rare third term, and he does not seem under any pressure to change it. With Amit Shah as home minister, Ajit Doval as national security adviser, S Jaishankar as foreign minister and Yogi Adityanath as UP chief minister, it strengthens the view that the policies witnessed in last two tenures would not undergo any change.

Foreign Minister Jaishankar has come back with reinforced belief that cross-border infiltration from Pakistan has not stopped, and China is not willing to step back on border issues. He is likely to have a free hand from coalition partners in the conduct of relations with Pakistan and China as they are more focused on domestic issues. This assumption can only perpetuate the state of enmity between India and its neighbours, undermining regional stability and economic development. There is a likelihood that India may gradually keep working to make SCO ineffective by disagreeing with other members on regional connectivity plans.

The BJP has played a critical role in perpetuating religious extremism and intolerance towards religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians. How? It implemented policies and rhetoric rooted in Hindutva ideology, which seeks to establish Hindu supremacy and marginalise non-Hindu communities in complete defiance of Constitutional guarantees for minorities. What was offensive to other minorities and not allowed under the country’s law included banning cow slaughter, promoting only Hindu education and culture, and making inflammatory statements against Muslims. In parallel, the BJP openly aligned itself with RSS and VHP, giving them impetus to commit acts of violence and discrimination
against minorities.

The BJP’s embrace of Hindutva ideology, alliance with extremist Hindu groups, and failure to curb communal violence have significantly contributed to the rise of religious intolerance and extremism in India. There is no chance that it will abate. Karnell Singh, a leader from India’s ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party, recently sparked outrage with his chilling threat to “slaughter 200,000 Muslims” following an incident involving a cow’s head near a Hindu temple in Delhi. This inflammatory rhetoric manifests the kind of the extremist Hindutva sentiments that Muslims and minorities may face in future.

The path forward requires a shift away from divisive Hindutva politics and towards inclusive, secular governance. Only then India can hope to foster regional peace, economic integration and shared prosperity with its neighbours, and achieve its strategic goals including a permanent membership of the UNSC.

But one should not forget that India’s history is marred by religious violence, including the traumatic events surrounding the partition and the subsequent conflicts over the status of Kashmir and the Sikh community’s demand for Khalistan. No serious effort has ever been made to heal the deep-seated ethnic divisions. These continue to simmer, threatening to erupt into further chaos and instability. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term signals a reluctance to meaningfully address these issues or introduce substantive changes in India’s governance and foreign policy. The process undermines the prospects for regional stability and economic development, as the perpetual state of enmity and “hybrid warfare” between India and its neighbours impede any progress towards prosperity. Geopolitical tensions and instability are harmful to India as well. By adopting unreasonable behaviour, it may not be able to enhance its own global power and projection. Without a genuine commitment to dialogue, reconciliation, and protection of minority rights, India’s path forward remains treacherous. In the context of the relations with Pakistan, the temptation to “undo each other” will continue to fuel geopolitical tensions, effectively killing any hopes for a thriving regional economy.

To break this vicious cycle, India must confront its own demons of religious extremism and intolerance. The government must take decisive steps to rein in hate speech, protect minority communities, and foster a culture of inclusivity and mutual understanding. Only then can India hope to establish lasting peace and stability in the region, paving the way for sustainable economic growth and regional integration. Fortunately, India’s neighbours, particularly Pakistan and China, are ready to play a constructive role in this process. Engaging in constructive dialogue, addressing longstanding disputes, and finding common ground on issues of shared interest can help create an environment conducive to regional cooperation and development.

The stakes are too high to ignore. India’s future, and prosperity of the entire region cannot be ensured if the cycle of instability and conflict is not put to rest.