Nuclear threshold

Tehran has stirred a debate on its own nuclear capability. The submission that the Islamic Republic could ‘reconsider’ its nuclear doctrine and go ahead to make a bomb has sent shivers down the spine. The conversation is aimed at Israel, and at the same time is testing the geostrategic resilience of the western world that had been quite sceptical of Iranian designs on uranium enrichment. The comment from an advisor to the Supreme leader, Syed Ali Khamenei, that if the revolutionary state’s existence is threatened, it will not mind crossing the threshold has come at an opportune moment. Apart from holding out a security shield of deterrence, Iran has simply conveyed that it is not up to tolerate nonsense or any kind of adventurism from its sworn adversaries, a referral to the United States too.

This stunt must have been debated in the secretive corridors of power by the Iranian leadership before being made a coercive conditionality. It means Iran has gone back, or is willing to climb down the high moral ladder, wherein it has stated that the regime will never build a nuclear weapon as it considers it to be ‘un-Islamic’ and unethical. The change of heart is directly related to the tangible threat that the country came across in the wake of its duel with Tel Aviv in the last few weeks. After resourcing to Bismarkism as Iran has cultivated a pool of proxies in the region and has settled down for a semblance with China and Russia, it now apparently believes that throwing in the towel is worth taking a risk.

Iran will have to do some plain-talking and take its allies and the IAEA into confidence over the brinkmanship. While holding out a bomb too is no guarantee that Israel might desist from its jingoism, it boils down to the equation that Iran is no more willing to rely on the softies of diplomacy. It wants in its gear-box a lethal combination of arsenal and power politics. When will it throw off the lid on enriching uranium is anybody’s guess.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 11^th, 2024.

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