Strategic discrimination

In a significant statement on 20 April, the Foreign Office rejected the imposition of American sanctions on entities in Pakistan and two other counties for alleged missile proliferation as “political use of export controls”. While the impact of these sanctions on the targeted entities would be meaningless, they underscore the blatant discrimination by the US towards Pakistan’s strategic programme aimed at maintaining credible deterrence against India. Even as Washington remains purblind to New Delhi’s conventional and strategic military build-up, partly aided by the US itself, it demands unilateral restraint by Pakistan. These double-standards are motivated by the US objective to empower India to become its ‘Net Security Provider’ against China, while Pakistan’s capabilities are to be restrained if not reversed, so that India can focus exclusively on China. This duplicitous policy without any regard for strategic stability in South Asia is nothing less than American discrimination at a strategic level to promote US geopolitical interests. Therefore, decision-makers in Pakistan should have no illusions about the true nature of Pakistan-US relations.

In its latest action, the US has sanctioned one company from Belarus and three companies from China for allegedly supplying missile capable items, which are at best dual use items, to Pakistan’s SUPARCO and National Development Complex. Under these sanctions, the assets of these companies in the US or in control of US persons are to be blocked. Since none of these targeted entities have or are likely to have any assets in the US, the net impact of these sanctions is zero. Therefore, the stated American objective to “bring about a positive change in behaviour” will not have any impact at all.

Such American sanctions against Pakistan are not new as Pakistan has been a victim of discriminatory American sanctions since 1974 when, ironically, it was indirectly targeted after India’s first nuclear test that year. Since then the Symington, Glenn, Solarz and eventually the Pakistan specific Pressler sanctions were imposed. After the May 1998 nuclear tests by India followed by those by Pakistan, both countries were sanctioned in a display of even-handedness. These were partially waived in Pakistan’s case since the US needed Pakistan’s assistance in the ‘war on terror’ after 9/11. But in India’s case, these sanctions were completely set aside by changing American nonproliferation laws to enable the bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement and the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver for India, as part of the Indo-US strategic partnership after 2004. Not only has Pakistan been denied equal treatment but has since then been intermittently subjected to multiple sanctions, along with demands for unilateral restraint.

In none of these cases has the US provided any concrete evidence to substantiate its accusations. As the Foreign Office has correctly pointed out, the US claims “strict adherence to non-proliferation controls, but has waived off licensing requirements for advanced military technologies for some countries”, meaning India. The Ministry also stated that “such discriminatory approaches and double-standards undermine the credibility of the non-proliferation regime and also the objectives of regional and global peace and security by accentuating military asymmetries.”

While America consistently touts a rules-based international order, including a universally applicable nonproliferation regime, its adherence to these principles is selective, guided by its geopolitical objectives. Therefore, discrimination for strategic purposes is inherent to US policy towards South Asia. This is also clear from the publically declared 2023 US country strategies for Pakistan and India, wherein the earlier policy of “de-hyphenation” has been replaced by outright discrimination. Pakistan is being asked to demonstrate unilateral restraint in the pursuit of its strategic programme, but India is being encouraged and enabled to modernise and enhance its conventional and strategic military capabilities, to become America’s Net Security Provider against China. Resultantly, four Indo-US Foundational Agreements have been signed, enabling defence, intelligence, space and technology cooperation as well as a waiver for nuclear collaboration. This has enabled India to increase its nuclear arsenal, and develop and deploy land, air and sea based short, medium and long range delivery systems, including an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability as well as a Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. Moreover, the US has waived its own laws that would trigger sanctions for Indian acquisition of weaponry from Russia such as the S-400 BMD systems and SU-35 aircraft. So much for American norms and laws.

While these Indian capabilities may advance Washington’s strategic interests against China, they can also be used against Pakistan. Indeed, 80 per cent of Indian force deployments, including the S-400 systems, are deployed against Pakistan. As such, Pakistan faces an existential threat from India. Not surprisingly, several former Indian officials like Shiv Shankar Menon and BS Nagal, as well as American analysts such as Ashley Tellis and Vipin Narang, have been speculating about a disarming preemptive first strike against Pakistan while the Cold Start doctrine for limited war below the nuclear threshold has now been officially embraced after initial denials.

In response, Pakistan has pursued Full Spectrum Deterrence to ensure credible deterrence at the tactical, operational and strategic levels which has ensured strategic stability in South Asia. This was demonstrated in February 2019 when Pakistan’s Operation Swift Retort involving a quid pro quo plus response dissuaded India from implementing its Cold Start doctrine.

However, the American policy of strategic discrimination seeking unilateral restraint by Pakistan, while assisting India to build up its conventional and strategic arsenal, could undermine Pakistan’s security and destabilise the region. These realities are being willfully ignored by Washington because the real American objective is to ensure that India can focus on China and not be distracted by Pakistan. Indeed, this is part of the overall American strategy for South Asia, clearly spelt out in their asymmetric country strategies for Pakistan and India, in which the US preference is for Pakistan to accept Indian regional domination. This is the real American geopolitical calculus driving their strategic discrimination against Pakistan which can only be countered by strengthening Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2^nd, 2024.

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