Pakistan's electoral dilemma: hope amidst challenges

Imran Khan’s PTI faces an uphill battle in contested elections

ISLAMABAD:

As Pakistan braces itself for the momentous day of highly contentious and controversial general elections, the nation stands at a critical juncture, marred by economic stagnation, hyperinflation, acute balance of payments issues, and serious security concerns.

In the midst of these challenges, the holding of elections today serves as a beacon of hope for continuity for the democratic process. Yet allegations about a lack of a level playing field, particularly for Imran Khan's PTI, have cast a shadow of doubt over the credibility of the exercise.

The PTI, having fallen out of favor with powerful quarters since the ouster of its government via a no-trust motion in April 2022, faces significant hurdles in this electoral battle. The perceived unfair advantages bestowed upon the PML-N this time underscore deeper issues within Pakistan's democratic framework, raising concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.

Restrictive conditions and constraints on political parties, notably the PTI, have hampered their ability to campaign freely, painting a picture of an uneven playing field exacerbated by the continuous influence of powerful quarters in the country's political affairs.

Surveys reflect a tight race between leading parties, the PTI and the PML-N, particularly in Punjab, which has a major say in government-making in the center. With its 141 general seats out of 266 directly elected seats of the National Assembly, alliances and political maneuvering in Punjab hold the key to dominance in the province that ultimately decides the fate of the next government at the center.

In this high-stakes electoral battle, parties like the PPP maintain their regional strongholds. While economic woes and security threats make the contest complicated, the presence of more than 100 parties in the contest with over 5,000 candidates for 266 National Assembly seats and another more than 12,000 candidates for 593 directly elected constituencies of the four provincial legislatures, add layers of complexity to the race. More than 65 percent of the candidates are independents.

The political landscape in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, historically a stronghold of the PTI, faces new challenges that may impact the party's performance. In Sindh, the PPP's influence remains strong, albeit with hurdles in expanding beyond its traditional base. Balochistan's political scene remains fragmented, with various parties and independents vying for influence in shaping the provincial government.

In a highly fragmented political atmosphere, voter turnout will determine the fate of main political players, particularly Imran Khan’s PTI, whose candidates are contesting as independents.

Many known PTI figures are either behind bars or facing crackdowns. Three court sentences to Imran Khan in three consecutive days just a week before the elections may go both in favor and against the party.

The party has been stripped of its election symbol, and candidates backed by the PTI are contesting as independents on numerous election symbols. It will be difficult for an electorate, 40% of whom cannot even read and write, to find their candidate if they have to vote for the PTI candidate.

Still, a lot would depend on the number of voters who turn up to cast their vote. Voters between 18-35 years of age constitute 44% of the 128 million voters and will play an important role in the elections.

Read: How elections can shape the future

A careful analysis of election results from the last four elections shows that the party poised to win an election got more seats than the proportionate number of votes it bagged on the polling day.

There were instances when the number of votes of a party was more than the number of votes of the “the king’s party” of that time. However, the king’s party ended up getting more seats thanks to the pre-poll, polling day, and post-poll maneuvers.

These maneuvers included seat adjustments, vote division through “manufactured” smaller parties and splinter groups, and smaller sectarian or religious groups launched to steer the results in favor of a particular party.

Interestingly, none of the mainstream parties that formed the government after the last four elections could secure more than 33% of the total votes cast, which leaves enough room in the hands of the establishment to maneuver.

If this maneuvering is not sufficient, another tactic is used when there is a very tight race. Rejected votes in a constituency, in many cases, are more than the difference between the winner and the runner-up. Interestingly, the percentage of rejected votes in every new election is increasing.

Besides other machinations done on election day to get a favorable outcome, the technology-based result compilation system of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has been seriously questioned during the last two elections.

In 2018, the ECP’s Result Transmission System (RTS) collapsed within a few hours after vote count started. For the 2024 elections, the ECP is introducing a new system, the Election Management System (EMS), developed by a private company to compile results electronically along with manual counting.

The ECP had its first large-scale mock test of the new system only a week ago—around two weeks before the polling day. It remains to be seen how successful the new system would prove in bringing transparency in vote count.

Despite these challenges, the unanimous decision of all stakeholders against boycotts or delays underscores a collective dedication to upholding democratic norms and a political transition of the nation's democratic journey.