Can PTI bat without bat?

Analysts think decision will be bad omen for ECP, judiciary in days to come

ISLAMABAD:

Famous superstitions like the black cat crossing the path, broken mirrors, eye twitching and the 13th day of the month falling on Friday or Tuesday is considered unlucky, but superstitions about lucky or unlucky numbers or days may seem true in some cases and just tall tales by desperate people in some other cases.

Though it was neither Friday nor Tuesday, the Dec 13 decision of the Supreme Court knocking out Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on some technical grounds on the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) plea apparently turned out to be nothing less than a cursed day for the PTI, triggering a debate whether the PTI can survive the setback or not in the run up to the general elections and after that.

For experts and political commentators, the top court’s ruling to deprive the PTI, being the former ruling and one of the most popular political parties of the country, of its election symbol of the cricket bat, will not only cause difficulties for the party but cast a long shadow on the general elections, upcoming government, parliament and democracy.

Renowned political experts, Zaigham Khan, and, Majid Nizami, while examining the situation on the political and electoral scene in the aftermath of the top court’s decision against the PTI, said that it’s a huge setback for the party, the decision has ended polls’ credibility and history will not judge the ECP, SC, among others, positively.

Zaigham, who is an anthropologist and development professional too, thinks that the PTI will survive as a party but the people will not be able to see it as a parliamentary party for the next five years, saying this will have an impact on the PTI’s overall fortunes as whatever has so far happened to the PTI is not the end of its misfortune.

“The pressure on the PTI will continue for next few years,” Zaigham said, adding that things may change as no one can surely predict the future. “Immense difficulties [lie] ahead but we will see it as a party as its vote bank will survive to a large extent.”

Read: PTI’s 'Plan B' unravels as PTI-N dispute over electoral symbol emerges

The PTI is a large party and when such parties are formed, Zaigham said, it has been seen that the vote bank remains intact for a generation and the emotional appeal continues.

To a question about possible horse-trading, Zaigham said that things will unfold once these the PTI candidates are elected independently, saying it will be interesting to see how many of them are elected in the first place.

However, he said, one thing is certain that they will face the pressure again, adding that the kind of pressure people have already seen will now come directly on the PTI members.

Zaigham noted that Pakistan has seen Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan formula as well as where people stay in their parties but the parties do not remain the same.

In this scenario, he predicted, chances are that someone might get a position in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by forming a block.

“Elections’ credibility has already gone,” Zaigham said. “And as a result of it, the legitimacy of the [upcoming] government will also be in question and if the legitimacy of government is in question, then the legitimacy of parliament and democracy will also be in question; this all will have an impact on political stability.”

He felt “history will not judge the institutions positively”.

Firstly, Nizami noted, it’s a huge setback for the PTI as, initially, the nomination papers of its candidates were rejected and in the second setback, the party has been deprived of its party symbol.

“The PTI’s survival is difficult. They will have to work really hard. Twice as much as they are doing right now.”

Secondly, Nizami opined that horse-trading will legally be no longer a crime because the elected candidates would not be contesting with the PTI’s symbol on the ballot paper; hence, it couldn’t be technically called horse-trading. However, he added, morally it would be criticised a lot despite there being no legal bar on the elected people.

Thirdly, Nizami pointed out that the top court’s decision to deprive the PTI of its election symbol on the ECP’s plea will definitely have a severe impact on the upcoming elections, saying it will confuse the PTI voters as they will have to check what symbol has been allotted to a particular candidate in their constituency.

Historically, Nizami while referring to the bat saga said that it’s a big and crucial case and would continue to be discussed for years.

“Historians will question the quantum of punishment awarded to the PTI on the basis of some technicalities,” Nizami said, adding that the judiciary and ECP “will have to face accountability regarding this [move]”.

Apart from the general impact on the PTI and the bad things attributed with the number 13, popular singer Taylor Swift feels that the number 13 is good luck for her.