2023 — lessons

We barely survived a default. The economy almost tanked and then with significant external help has only kept intact. Pakistan’s state structure, especially its armed forces retained their integrity and cohesion to come out stronger on the other side of an externally targeted upheaval. Their integrity is sine qua non for country’s stability. After having seen and experienced the worst political turmoil of its history governing structures have somehow muddled through even if these did not conform strictly to constitutional statutes. If the constitution was dented and at some places mauled it still in most parts remains operative. True, the people suffered and perhaps were the most affected in this struggle for political or institutional eminence, yet they have once again lived up to ‘resilience’ imposed on them.

It would have been worse had the army chosen to wipe all off including the constitution and established its own writ in the way that they have done numerous times before. For some time now they have upheld the constitution even if they have chosen pathways not in entire conformance. Even more importantly they have had a civilian’s face in position of eminence. They may have reluctantly recognised that their indulgence in civilian affairs, a political fief, isn’t something which holds them popular. Hence the hybrid arrangements around military’s great organisational strength which they have in recent years used often to help and support the achievement of a common purpose of governance in a very complex national landscape. It all comes at a cost, though.

The last 30 months or so have been of extreme turmoil. Both, economically and politically. Leadership has mostly been pedestrian and the absence of viable institutions of governance have left a void which made any political effort — mostly self-serving — to administer, amateurish. We survived that too as political parties of fair eminence only collected barbs for a job very incompetently done. How far will they suffer in public perception will only be told in the coming elections, but it is quite a weight to carry of a performance in power alternately called abysmal and pathetic. When the interim arrangement was put in place by getting together odd names it seemed farcical and foregone as a final act in a meltdown. When the interim governments extended beyond their constitutional limits or acted in areas of policy and decision-making beyond their pale it made us look a perpetually interim nation.

Nothing seemed grounded in law, process or tradition. When the Supreme Court changed lead and a few processes were telecast live it was as amusing and enamouring as a cricket match transmission. Some pinned hope but with great trepidation. Till elections were ordained. Hope infused even if the fear of a false dawn lingers. Even if it is a miss and a conditional and conditioned exercise the jam would have been broken. In time we will return to full process.

Politically, there are numerous lessons to imbibe from the year. Imran Khan’s decision to dismiss his base and bastion in Punjab and KP assemblies was a blunder he will rue all his life. What has followed and what he and his party have endured is a consequence of that major misstep. He acknowledges as much, just that too much water from Indus has already vacated into the sea. Everyone except his then opposition shouted at the top of their voice for him to desist but he claims superhuman instinct and supranatural intuition and ended up being a laggard from a master. Don’t do that; listen to wise counsel. Even more important, have wise counsel around you and not everyone around you is wise counsel.

His next major blunder was 9^th May, however and whoever caused it. In the ultimate scheme of things politics took a turn of face in ending up being a violent recourse which only boomeranged labeling him and his party clueless adventurists. A legal alibi may come in handy in escaping the dragnet but the cost till date is already huge that he, his party and his politics continue to pay. When he comes out on the other side of it, he should thank his stars for having escaped a major, major — well there is no better word — blunder of humungous proportions.

IK’s political opposition also goofed no end. They proved themselves opportunists of the worse kind who willingly sacrificed political wisdom for the lure of power without the capacity or the resource to do any good. They descended to the lowest rungs of credibility and viability as leaders when they instead used the moment to absolve themselves of all known cases under trial or those necessitating legal and moral arraignment for multiple allegations of crimes. Their reputation stood roiled and marred perpetually. The Vote of No Confidence (VNC) may have triggered the tumult but that there were takers and willing executants of it was viciously more compromising. The combined opposition before it became the PDM failed to call a fresh vote for a new mandate. They did not and one screw up led to another. It will take years and a few elections to wash the blot away. When they chose to complete their time in power, they handed over control of all political decisions to non-representative forces which includes the interim set-up. Lesson: keep control of politics in representative political control. When you cede it of your own accord you lose the right to whine.

This political ineptness and thoughtless blundering have caused this nation great pain and suffering. Amateurism in the affairs of state has no redemption. Economically and socially, we were taken to the brink. The slight sense of some predictability that we have now is improvised, transitory and unsustainable. It is without the foundational structures to hold it for any length. The politics for most part has been disappointing in intent, commitment and performance when in power. These weaknesses have left spaces for others to creep into the power structure.

While we have been victims of poor governance at the hands of inept ruling systems, democratic or non-democratic, any ruling structure especially in the last thirty months has proven ill-equipped, unprepared and disinterested beyond party or tribal interests. That has kept composite arrangements central to governance. Constitution and laws deriving from it have remained nominally relevant and selectively applied. This makes our socioeconomic state even more tenuous. It is thus also time for all elements of the state to imbibe that only fully mandated representative ruling structures will be sustainable and credible to enthuse sufficient belief among global partners. Judiciary has acted positively in attempting to right the overhang of uncertainty. Unless all understand the need to cast the pall off, 2024 may only be a continuity of 2023 and its long shadows. May 2024 show us some light! Happy New Year!

Published in The Express Tribune, December 29^th, 2023.

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