China’s emissions to surpass 4 billion MT

China’s power sector emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and equivalent gases will surpass 4 billion metric tonnes for the first time in a calendar year in 2023, as the country cranks up coal-fired electricity output to new highs.

China’s total emissions from fossil fuel-powered electricity generation hit 3.99 billion tonnes through October, marking a 5.5% rise from the same period in 2022 and a 22% jump from five years ago, data from think tank Ember shows.

As China’s coal-fired power output often peaks in December due to higher demand for heating in winter, the country’s power generation emissions can be expected to climb further before the end of the year to ensure a new emissions record.

China’s share of global power sector emissions from fossil fuel use also looks set to hit new highs in 2023, after averaging over 41% through the first nine months of the year, Ember data shows.

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China’s share of global power emissions averaged about 39% in each of the previous three years, and about 36% in the preceding two years, so higher coal-fired output in China along with reduced fossil fuel power emissions elsewhere have lifted the concentration of worldwide power pollution in China in 2023.

China’s growing share of global coal-fired electricity generation has been a key driver behind this trend, with the country accounting for about 57% of total worldwide coal generation so far in 2023, compared to just under 55% in each of the previous three years. While China’s share of global coal use is on the rise, coal’s share within China’s electricity generation mix is declining.

Over the first 10 months of 2023, coal accounted for just under 62% of total electricity generation in China.

That compares to an average share of about 65% over the previous five years, and more than 71% in 2015, Ember data shows.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 22^nd, 2023.

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