Pakistan’s political predicament

There are a few givens to consider as we struggle through a difficult phase of regaining political normalcy

There are a few givens that must be considered as we struggle through a difficult phase of regaining political normalcy as a state.

Politics has largely been regionalised. This generates its own limitations as hardly a party has roots and tentacles in all parts of the country imposing the perpetuation of only a coalition majority at the Centre — following 18^th amendment regional political denominations were empowered to the point of becoming the centerpiece of attention at the cost of the Centre, other implications aside. This has weakened the Centre and a party that may otherwise seem electorally strong must still go begging for electoral alliances to forge a majority. In Punjab, PMLN may be the single largest political entity in absence of PTI but will still need to be supported by others to contrive a majority.

With the PTI reduced to negotiate multiple legal challenges chances of its senior leadership contesting elections seem remote. The voters may still though turn out in massive numbers and in a reaction-vote upset the calculations of a smooth PMLN victory (especially in Punjab). The big if: they turn out in massive numbers, and they can vote unhindered. Regardless, the PTI should still score some victories in Punjab and KP for respective provincial assemblies — where they can be a handful — and in the national assembly where they may be lightly represented compared to the last turn. PTI leadership will do well to recover from its legal challenges, retain the mold of a political party without losing its identity, and wait for happier days.

The PPP is a frustrated political entity. Despite being the only political force that can claim to carry a philosophy and a strong political tradition, it finds itself marooned in Sindh. Its leadership has unfortunately been tainted with massive allegations of corruption, reputation of ineptness and failures in governance. Sindh’s feudal structure and thus a perpetual political hold over all of Sindh has meant that the party has remained unchallenged over its performance inadequacies spawning impunity in its conduct when in power. It turned Sindh into an impregnable fort but consequently found itself locked in it losing its position, administrative infrastructure, vote base and foundations in rest of the country. It now seems frantically groping for help in a dark night in other provinces. KP may save it some blushes but there isn’t much beyond that. It shall thus remain resigned to a secondary role at the national level.

The hybrid nature of governance that have evolved over the last 5-6 years because of deep and multifarious challenges that Pakistani state is beset with is likely to be the order that will stay in vogue for the foreseeable future. Political players like Nawaz Sharif who has returned to the game after four years — not without corporate support — will need to relearn to coexist with such cross-spectrum structures. Not understanding the changed paradigm will only make the ride bumpier and prone to mishaps.

Yet, there is that innate desire to restore fully vibrant political culture amid mechanisms which are purely political designed and managed. Not that when politics had had the opportunity it left a remarkable print, but to regain the stability that we so earnestly miss the first step will always be to restore political structures to their fullest functional form. Having been derailed under numerous connotations and variations into a political system we eventually became means that it shall have to be prudent, if deliberate, return to the desired construct. The forthcoming elections will be a good start even if it fails to meet the full-spectrum restoration because of restraints on one major party. It shall thus have to be those who can fully participate to respect the footprint that PTI enjoys and make for it the space that will keep it relevant and more comprehensive represent all segments of the society.

A resort to zero-sum politics in this era of dysfunctionality will not return the inherent strength desired in the political system from which emerge the parliament and the government. Some broad understanding, not necessarily a ‘charter’ which becomes too rigid and confrontational, is essential to move all stakeholders in one direction. Those in PTI facing legal cases will face them off in courts but those on the outside must get their due space and share of the process to carry their politics forward around millions who still support the party. Disenfranchising people of their fundamental right is neither morally and legally right nor has served us well in the past dismembering us in the process. We have suffered that ignominy and must learn our lessons. We must let people express themselves and their opinion freely without fear. And respect what we hear. The political establishment of the country needs to digest this lesson more than any other institution.

There is an intrinsic legacy of dysfunctionality in governance which is mostly blamed on the ‘civil-military imbalance’ in the power structure of the country. The constitution is invoked to ‘seek’ civilian right to be supreme. While that may be true in legal and constitutional terms it is always the non-tangibles like ‘moral’ and ‘functional’ apathy in conduct which weakens the weight of the civilian establishment. The last four decades have witnessed deterioration in every aspect of civilian governance and administrative arms of the government due to increasing ineptness and politicisation. The police, the bureaucracy, even the judicial arm and most policy forming institutes of the system will serve the ‘master’ of the time at the cost of genuine probity. This has compromised every existing arm of government to the point of non-performance serving the interests of the powerful at the cost of people’s interest. This makes politics look weaker vis a vis the other two competitors in the power-pie, the military and the judiciary doubly irking politicians who contend for it in confrontational bickering without substantive corrections to their own conduct in power. This perpetuates dysfunctionality.

Some tweaking to the approach to tasks that are lain in the political pale and restoring the effectiveness in each administrative and policy arm of the government will strengthen the conduct and performance of our ‘civilian’/political governments. It will also deny the other two competing circles of power, military and judicial, any expanded space of influence — the usual lament of the ‘civilian’ side. There are no sides. We need to be seen and work for the same side. Retuning the mindset to ground realities will help. Over ‘zealousness’ and ‘possessiveness’ must also give way to shared responsibilities far better within allocated domains. Let the upcoming elections also be the time to make these corrections in our presumptive sense of influence and control. Let’s get back to being a normal country.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 10^th, 2023.

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