Afghan refugees, the Islamic Emirate and Pakistan

October 31, 2023 was the deadline for all ‘illegal aliens, including Afghans, to leave Pakistan. While discussing the regional situation in Islamabad, a foreign diplomat remarked to me that “Pakistan was looking at the cited problem in black and white [ignoring the many shades of grey].” It is Pakistan’s sovereign right to assert its control within its borders; not allow illegal migrants; and not be a soft state which is amenable to violations with impunity. Having said that, some problems are chronic, too intractable and cannot be addressed through the said binary of black and white; and Afghan refugees is one such issue.

In discussing the Afghan situation per se, one has always taken the long view as supported by sociology, anthropology and history, looking at the situation through an international relations perspective rather than the more popular current affairs. So, let’s start with some questions. Will the state be able to evict all illegal aliens including Afghans, Burmese, Bangladeshis and Africans, etc? What would be the political, humanitarian and diplomatic cost of uprooting especially the Afghan families who have built lives, careers and businesses all over Pakistan particularly in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan? Will such policy endear us to the Islamic Emirate (IEA)? Will it serve the ends of our geo-strategy for which we have been actively working over the past decades? Will it not dilute the ‘strategic dividend’ that Pakistan accrued when IEA ascended to power in Kabul, the nagging issue of TTP notwithstanding? If the answer to most of these questions is not what it should be, we need to recalibrate.

First, Pakistan’s ability to evict all ‘illegal’ Afghans. If the capacity and sincerity of those implementing policy at the grassroots level is any guide, this is not going to happen. For a pittance, most officials would look sideways. Those repatriating would come again. NADRA officials would continue to issue them Pakistani ID cards and hence passports. Most would just blend and merge in our rural heartland with local populations not willing to report upon them due to their innate humanity.

Not all Afghans are criminals, kidnappers, murderers and gangsters. Most village imams in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are Afghans, living peacefully since decades. Afghans comprise reliable labour force where our own expertise and numbers are wanting, like construction workers and well-diggers. Those with capital run successful businesses from Khyber to Karachi, contributing to the economy through indirect taxation, consumption and job creation. They help run our universities and hospitals in an environment where both are cash strapped. They serve as our leverage in Pak-Afghan bilateralism. They enjoy the historic ‘easement rights’ in our border areas... that of going back and forth across the border to meet families and do everyday shopping in our border markets etc, as Durand Line divides some 17 tribes on either side.

So, for all the cited reasons and more, one very much doubts that the ongoing drive would be any different from the previous such anti-Afghan refugee drives. So, what should be a pragmatic and implementable policy? Without insulting anyone’s intelligence, some thoughts are proffered.

All Afghans should be registered and given possible options to live legally. ‘Some possible options’ are living under Pakistani sponsorship like in the Gulf states (kafeel, etc); or becoming Pakistani citizens by providing proof of their residence and of children born here, as is the international norm; or through investments, etc. Others should voluntarily go back and process their cases from within Afghanistan.

Those willing to pay for Pakistani citizenship through investment portfolios in foreign currencies (like in most countries) should be encouraged to do so. This would bring home Afghan investments stashed in Dubai, for example. Next door Pakistan is anytime more preferable to Afghans, rather than the far away Gulf. Afghans would not change demographics in Balochistan as Baloch nationalists and Shia leaders in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa fear. One, such demographic enhancement on ethnic/sectarian lines would be insignificant; and two, we already live under such ‘altered’ demographics since the 1970s.

But the cited options need diligent work by our officialdom, hence the stick and the heartless eviction...against our geostrategic interests. Eviction, if inevitable, should be in phases. ‘Illegals’ followed by those with bogus papers and then those with documents... if we must. However, the option of living legally under the cited options and many more must always be there under international law and in coordination with the UNHCR and other agencies. Pakistan also has a right to recompense by these organisations.

Second, relations with IEA. Enough has been written about our ‘strategic dividend’ and economic aspirations through a stable and friendly Afghanistan by this scribe. The historic constants and imperatives of Pak-Afghan bilateralism are well known, besides the only sticking variable, the TTP. Following are some pointers for IEA...without patronising it in any way. These are sincere iterations to IEA which fought long and hard to free Afghanistan from foreign occupation, and which loves Islam and cares for Afghans and Pakistanis alike.

Amir-ul-Momineen would do a good job to rein in some wayward Afghans who spew venom against Pakistani state and institutions with reckless abandon. The one such media spectacle is the ster Jenraal Mobeen. This self-styled pseudo military official is doing more harm to the Afghan interests than many. The Emirate should control messaging from its officials and avoid jerky reactions like refusing aid in the recent earthquake. Interstate relations are interest-based and not emotionally-driven. And IEA needs to understand where Afghanistan’s interest lies. Long ago that interest was intractably intertwined with the Subcontinent...today more so with present-day Pakistan.

And yes, Pakistanis should not rub their hospitality spanned over decades in Afghan face; a true Afghan and Pashtun would never forget the shegara/or khegara (the favour done). How can true Afghans forget the Pakistan/ISI’s help in winning against the shoravi (USSR)? Or Pakistan’s perceived ‘double game’ against the recent US/NATO occupation? Or the Afghan generations going to Pakistani schools in peace and amity; or the sick and wounded treated in Peshawar and Quetta; or the youngsters learning to play cricket; or the poor Pakistanis in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan sharing with them what little they had? As an Afghan, I would be very conscious of my obligations under Pashtunwali/Pakhtunwali and Islamic ethos.

I would understand Pakistan’s point of view by not harbouring its enemies and do something about it before it is too late.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 2^nd, 2023.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.