CPEC and power dynamics

Ten years have passed since the launch of CPEC — a ray of hope for Pakistan mired in militancy for more than a decade.

The project will open the province of Balochistan to international trade, with the Gwadar seaport being a trading hub.

These credentials point towards a prosperous future for Pakistan.

In the regional and global context, CPEC — which is a part of the larger BRI — links Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

After completion, BRI is likely to generate GDP worth $21 trillion.

The countries connected through BRI will have trading ties, while the economic interdependence will impact diplomatic relations as well.

BRI can be termed a transformative engine driving the world regions towards economic integration.

Looking from a global lens, CPEC is an expansion of China to South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

For the littoral states along the Indian Ocean, the building of seaports and connectivity with South Asia, Central Asia and East Asia is an opportunity to reach out to the markets of adjoining regions.

In particular, the Gwadar-Kashgar linkage under CPEC will connect Pakistan and China, thus opening up prospects of economic cooperation between markets of South Asia and East Asia.

From the Xinjiang province (northwest China), CPEC will move onto Central Asia.

On the whole, CPEC is an economic opportunity for South, Central and East Asia.

Importantly, CPEC will provide Afghanistan with a trading outlet.

The economic dividends of CPEC will improve the lives of many in region.

However, despite the optimism attached to CPEC, there are countries which look at the corridor as “China’s predatory lending to Pakistan for possible geostrategic objectives”.

This narrative is led by the Western scholars.

Terms like “debt trap diplomacy” are coined to generate criticism over CPEC and BRI.

The perception that the corridor will benefit China more, and will entangle Pakistan into economic woes is also a part of this narrative.

Such approaches reflect more of a Cold War mentality where the fight was between Communism and Capitalism.

Currently, the objections to BRI and its flagship project CPEC are to postpone the change in international order.

The forces of connectivity and economic integration as envisioned in BRI are seen as a challenge to global power structure.

In South Asia, India has vociferously opposed CPEC.

The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav from Balochistan exposed India’s adversarial position towards CPEC.

India has reached out to Asia Pacific for economic and security benefits, but is opposed to economic connectivity of South Asia.

It is quite apparent that India feels threatened from an economically strong Pakistan and is also wary of China’s growing role in region.

The opposition to CPEC is competition-driven.

The tactics employed to subvert the corridor involve coercive methods and propaganda.

Whether the adversarial tendencies will outmanoeuver the forces of economic integration or the regional connectivity will change the power dynamics is yet to be seen.

However, the way countries have joined BRI shows that economic connectivity will define power politics.

In addition to Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have also joined BRI.

This foretells a diversification of economic linkages and a change in regional political outlook.

As for the economic benefits of CPEC for Pakistan, around 192,000 jobs have been created.

In addition, 6,000 megawatts of electricity is being produced.

The construction of highways has materialised the rural-urban synergy.

Being part of the corridor, Pakistan will be able to focus on the development of blue economy.

In this backdrop, the anti- CPEC forces need to give up the Cold War mentality and adjust with the trends of regional connectivity and geo-economics.

CPEC will transform Pakistan into a trading hub.

As per the statement of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, “The Gwadar port, co-built by China and Pakistan, has made great progress in creating a regional logistics hub and industrial base.

In addition, the construction of the first phase of the Rashakai Special Economic Zone in Pakistan has been completed and achieved positive results in business attraction.