Pakistan’s growing population challenge

Pakistan is passing through one of the most difficult times in its socioeconomic and political history. For the world’s fifth most populous nation, its debt-ridden and floods-ravaged economy appears to be the biggest worry at present. The cash-strapped country is braving a record 38% inflation and expects to sign a loan agreement with the IMF to avoid a potential default. The dollar-hungry country is also reeling from last year’s devastating floods that killed 1,700 people and caused economic damages estimated at more than $30 billion.

The prevailing economic uncertainties are thought to vanish as the country clinches a deal with IMF. This will not, however, mean bliss for Pakistan. The country’s problem is graver than what meets the eye.

What would remain a permanent challenge for the resource-constrained country is its huge population and the government’s lukewarm response to family planning. Pakistan is conducting a fresh census and has estimated its population at 232 million burgeoning at an annual rate of 1.9%, more than double the pace, 0.8%, at which the global population is growing.

According to UN Population Division, Pakistan will be 263 million-strong by 2030 if its federal and provincial authorities do not join hands to arrest the growth rate. They will have to work proactively on inclusive and results-oriented family planning programmes that should be implemented in a manner that rights of the women stand duly protected in the male-dominated society of Pakistan.

Lack of proper health coverage claims the lives of at least 3,000 women every year at the time of delivery in Sindh province alone. Half of the province’s children under five are stunted while every 60 out of 1,000 infants born alive perish before reaching the age of one year.

High fertility leads to infant mortality and malnutrition, concluded experts at a recent workshop organised in Karachi by the planning ministry in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

UNFPA is working with the Government of Pakistan and other stakeholders in line with the International Conference on Population and Development Programme and Family Planning 2030 national commitments to integrate sexual and reproductive health services in the national universal health coverage package, prioritising national ownership and investing in national and subnational institutions and accountability systems.

The UN agency is also supporting reviews of national policy, legislation and action plans affecting sexual and reproductive health, gender equality, child marriage, youth and women’s empowerment to identify implementation bottlenecks.

Sindh is Pakistan’s second most populous province with a 56.3 million population growing at an average rate of 2.41% a year. By 2050 the population of Sindh is expected to rise by 70%.

A rapidly growing population means the government will see persistent pressure in terms of providing food, education and health facilities and infrastructure to its people.

Local politicians have been boasting about the country’s young population as a big positive but not many realise that this youth bulge also requires quality education and enough job opportunities to be able to play their part in the country’s socioeconomic development. This otherwise remarkable human asset may turn into a liability if the government does not make family planning a national priority.

Pakistan started its family planning programme in 1965 but is lagging far behind its regional peers like Bangladesh, Iran and Turkey in improving access to family planning. The three countries respectively have achieved a total fertility rate of 2.3%, 2.1% and 2.3% compared with Pakistan’s 3.6%.

A multi-sectoral approach is needed to check this high fertility rate by increasing focus on provision of family planning information and services and female education and reducing infant mortality which would in turn raise the country’s rating on the Human Development Index.

Without investing in education, family planning and women empowerment, it would be difficult for policymakers in Pakistan to accommodate a huge population expected to become the world’s fourth largest by 2050.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2023.

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