Venezuela — the next war front

Ex-Noble Peace Prize-aspirant President Donald Trump has recently been busy igniting a new direct war across the Caribbean, with Venezuela. The Caribbean has been flooded with 10,000 US troops, F-35 jets, warships and special forces. From 2nd September till now, the US has killed 87 people in 22 strikes on more than 18 Venezuelan boats.

Covering real intent of the US, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Maduro is backing the TDA (Tren de Aragua), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, "responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere".

This is not the first time Venezuela has been attacked. The US has been viciously against the country since Hugo Chavez started the Pink Tide, a movement to unite South American states against imperialist US formulas in the continent. Since the passing of Chavez, the US is constantly on the mission to oust his successor Maduro, and to bring South America back into the Washington Consensus. In the 2019 Venezuelan elections, the US denounced Maduro's victory and in his place recognised Juan Guaidó, a newcomer, as the interim president of the country. This was a clear interference in the democratic process of Venezuela — the people decide their president not a hegemonic neighbour!

Ironically, at that time, at the behest of the US, several European allies also recognised Guaidó's presidency. At the same time, there have also been several failed assassination attempts on Maduro. Lately, Oslo snatched the Nobel Peace Prize from Trump and gave it to another Venezuelan opposition leader, Maria Machado. Both Trump and Maria were equally ineligible, except you take the words 'noble' and 'peace' out of the prize — but Maria's pick was specially to strike Maduro.

President Maduro, with the people of Venezuela behind him, whom he says are "clear, united and aware", has vowed to respond strongly against US aggressions — and Russia has come to its aid as a first-responder. Already Venezuela had 5000 Igla-S Russian missiles with it, and at the end of October a Russian Il-76 transport plane, that can carry 200 personnel and 50 tons of arms, landed in Caracas, signaling Moscow's direct involvement in the conflict.

Earlier in May, Putin and Maduro signed a Strategic Partnership Treaty, but the alliance between the two had begun years before that. In recent years Russia has supplied $4 billion in weapons and Russian special-forces advisers are present in Venezuela. Putin has also dispatched the Wagner Group's units to Venezuelan to train the troops.

On the other hand, the deployment of the USS Gerald Ford carrier group and a nuclear-powered submarine in the Caribbean, have intensified US's force-posture and its intent to open a new geopolitical front in Latin America. Going a leap further, Trump has, disproving all international norms, openly announced authorisation of CIA covert operations in Venezuela against Maduro.

Yet, in the wider geopolitical context, all this bellicose from Trump's side points to a hidden fear that is unnerving the US. The global hegemony of the US lied on the premise that it has no contender in the Western Hemisphere, and that it does not face any threat of war with any country in both North and South America. But the US has been constantly aggravating Venezuela and other South American states with socialist-leaning governments, with systematic and ongoing regime-change operations and other political interferences. This has turned a submissive South America into a battle-ready one.

Now the US faces a war that will potentially be fought in its home ground. The same wars the US backed in the Middle East, and wanted to bring to Russia and China, may now very well be fought in its own backyard. And Russia and China would only be happier to partake in such an opportunity. Venezuela's world's largest proven oil-reserves and its proximity to the Panama Canal give it the strategic positioning it needs to win the war. Moreover, there is probability that other leftist government of South America will jump in supporting Maduro if things get hot. This new confrontation will potentially be a global multipolar power struggle expanded into the Western Hemisphere.

Perhaps the US deep state realises these shortcomings well. Perhaps this is the reason why, beneath this aggressive posture, there is also a constant endeavour to find middle ground and to strike a deal with Maduro. Maduro has repeatedly confirmed that the real motive behind the massive US military buildup in the Caribbean is Venezuela's oil. Even, Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro has described the campaign against Caracas as "a negotiation about oil", and that Trump "is not thinking about democratizing Venezuela, much less about drug trafficking". So, will there be war or will there be a deal, not a US monopoly deal but an equality deal that Maduro is ready to sign?

Speaking of deals, the new National Strategic Security signed by Trump this week warns Europe that it faces "civilizational erasure", and identifies ending the war in Ukraine as a "core" US interest, and signals a shift towards restoring what Washington describes as "strategic stability with Moscow". In another flip, Trump has killed the Trade War with his own hands by okaying AI chip giant Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 chips to "approved customers" in China.

Has the US finally come to a realisation that the coming of a new world order is inevitable and it needs to readjust its interests and priorities instead of boastfully dragging itself into wars it can't win? Or, will the neocons embed in US deep state force the Trump administration to follow their favourite Chaos Theory line, wherein destruction of others ensures power and hegemony of the US? And will a war with Venezuela prove to be the stamp that will mark the complete decline of the US as a superpower, or even a regional one?