It is no secret that the security establishment in Pakistan often has a final say on ties with India. Army chiefs have in the past vetoed or sabotaged efforts by civilian leaders to normalise ties with the neighbouring country. Kargil misadventure under General Musharraf after the historic road trip to Lahore by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in 1999 was just one example. Interestingly, Musharraf after the military coup pursued Nawaz’s policy but his own generals eventually pushed him out as he had gone too far in seeking rapprochement with India.
The crux of the story is: civilian leaders always want peace with the arch rival but the military has never let that happen. However, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, now retired, had different ideas. Bajwa may have made many mistakes and is being rightly criticised but he deserved the credit for seeking an out of the box solution to normalise ties with India. When Nawaz appointed him as Army Chief in November 2016, one of the major factors that led to his elevation was his approach towards India. Bajwa, before being appointed as Army Chief, was known in the army circles as someone who did not believe in the traditional approach Pakistan pursued with India. It was rare or perhaps for the first time an Army Chief in Pakistan was keener than a civilian leader to make peace with India. Generals Ayub, Zia and Musharraf did pursue the peace process but as rulers.
Bajwa’s doctrine was totally opposite to the Pakistani establishment’s traditional approach. Pakistan has all along maintained that peace with India is incumbent upon resolution of the longstanding issues, including Kashmir. This means that without resolution of the core disputes, people-to-people contact, trade and commercial ties are not possible. Bajwa’s approach was that both nuclear-armed neighbours start trade, people-to-people contacts, and seek resolution of issues that are considered low hanging. He believed that increased contacts between the two countries would eventually create a less hostile environment that would make it easier for leadership on both sides to settle the issue of Kashmir.
Even before Imran became Prime Minister, Pakistan and India had already been talking to each other through back channels. After Imran formed the government, those contacts picked up pace. Despite the Pulwama incident and India’s unilateral move to scrap the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the discreet diplomacy continued. Only a handful of people from both sides were privy to the contacts. Contrary to claims, Imran was privy to the developments. A series of meetings between then DG ISI Lt Gen Faiz Hameed and Indian NSA Ajit Doval in the UAE paved the way for the February 2021 renewal of LoC ceasefire. The next step was to partially restore trade. Imran, who also held the portfolio of commerce minister, approved the lifting of the import ban from India but as Prime Minister he turned down the proposal. Imran backed out at the last minute as Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi warned him that such a move would be seen as Kashmir sellout and would be politically suicidal for the PTI government. The process eventually collapsed. Imran didn’t take the risk as he was worried about the public backlash. Had he taken the risk, this could have transformed not just the Indo-Pak relationship but Pakistan’s domestic politics also.
Indian policy is at the heart of the civil-military imbalance in Pakistan. If there was peace with India, the balance of power naturally would shift from GHQ to Islamabad. Friendly or less hostile ties with India mean that Pakistan may no longer need heavy defence spending, freeing up necessary resources for economic development. Bajwa’s approach towards India was realistic and pragmatic. Perhaps, we may not have another army chief in the foreseeable future who would be willing to go that far. Clearly, Imran has missed a great opportunity!
Published in The Express Tribune, May 22nd, 2023.
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