Pakistan’s existential threat

I will continue from where the erudite Business Correspondent of this Paper, Shahbaz Rana, left us giving the state of the economy and how it stands stagnated/reversed while ‘Nero(s)’ fiddle in the Parliament on how to bring to dust the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, thundered a war on a Court which has already been weakened and divided under a direct assault of the government, its component partners and cohorts. This, when Rana tells us the inflation in the country was at its second highest of the last six decades — 36.4 per cent. It was only marginally worse in 1964 — that is 59 years back. This nation hasn’t done as poorly ever, as now.

Iran is the only other country in Asia that counts 50 per cent inflation. But they have been under international sanctions for decades. We aren’t under any sanctions except those of brain, thought, vision, ideas, sincerity, loyalty, concern, attention and priority. People don’t count. They are falling below the poverty line in droves and when at the bottom of the heap they take their lives and of those they can’t feed. Why isn’t there a murmur, because they don’t count. Suffice to say their voice of agitation has been crushed under the weight of multiplied poverty and hunger.

The finance minister of this government, Ishaq Dar, meant to be an accountant-wizard who would take us out of this predicament is busy doing politics through other means. The IMF and its essential requirements to complete a deal which will bring Pakistan back into the economic mainstream of the financial world meanwhile wait for his attention and time. He either has an aversion to IMF, for which he offers no alternate, or he is on a mission to search and destroy of what little exists. (Textile exports last month were down by 45 per cent while those of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were up by 10-30 per cent in comparison). Rumours are aplenty, but for the moment it is only gravely worrying. It may well be aimed at scaring someone into submission with a promise that given the ‘right’ and ‘sufficiently tenured’ environment the alchemy of brilliance will begin to shine and restore hope.

Say, the elections to the two provincial assemblies in question are not held and the constitution is circumvented, or some provisions set aside to enable what the powerful in politics — the government, and the parliament composed of this government — desire in the name of improving prospects of economy, political economy and all-round stability. Say also, that come October, another geostrategic or geopolitical imperative forces postponement of the national polls. There will then be two options: keep the same people in power as are today (more likely) facilitated by a placating ‘system’ and pliant legal corroboration if what we get is how we define stability. All the dithering and stalling of the polls is for fear of ‘instability’ as challenges mount with equal ferocity.

Why then have nincompoops run a system which is democratically non-representative and beyond repair with limited faculties? If indeed the constitution or some of its provisions must be put on hold for what is considered better interest of the country, if not the people, why not give it away to an installed system of technocrats where specialists deal with areas which need rectification through remedial policy institution? True, it will need the non-political players in the country to be on the same page — difficult with a new bench at the SC. Else, continuation of the existing system alone becomes the only workable method. Someone somewhere will need to develop a blueprint of escape from the predicament. And if none can, or is not willing, quite unsure of what might unfurl with ensuing and feared instability, there will be other triggers that will unravel the quasi-order. Persistent incompetence, widespread poverty and prevailing hunger will usher in destructive and persistent instability. Whence there, we will be in an unseen and uncontrolled territory. An attempt to force-stop Imran Khan and his PTI will produce a similar meltdown.

First, the elections must be held as ordained — not essentially how IK wants them but neither succumbing to the insidious stratagem of the PDM to keep IK out and hold on to power at the cost of order and constitution. Second, if this cannot be done for fear of the unknown and the constitution or some of its tenets will anyway be mauled, then install a long-term interim government under someone as political and as independent as Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who has proven himself in that position even if briefly. He has vision and ideas beyond the routine and must get his opportunity at a term which supported by the right mix of politico-technocrat specialist can equip him to turn the tide of dismalness and dismay around the existing display of ineptness.

Polls to all assemblies on one day is right for our kind of polity and society which has limited resource at hand. It will permit enduring governments in the provinces and the center with a mandate and time to attend to our ailments including bringing back to life a dead economy. We may begin to produce more than we consume and save more. Maybe we can focus on turning agriculture into a profitable industry and save and store water so that our following generations are served better. Maybe we permit younger leadership to emerge and gradually move into positions of power replacing what is now facile and redundant. Also shift the focus of the foreign policy from rhetoric and ideological to people-centric — Pakistanis before every other consideration making their lives easier and livable than be driven by chimeras of one hue or another.

If an order of the right mix — better than one on display — is contrivable that could be our chance to break free of the toxic politics currently prescribed. The parleys of the two opposing camps failed spectacularly, for these weren’t intended to succeed in conception but to defy what the Supreme Court had ordained in its ‘unmatched’ imagination. The half-eaten, unrepresentative parliament and a government on props joined forces to defy the third pillar of the state, the courts. Courts have been attacked before. This time they are under relentless attack with a clear aim to seek reprieve. If weaker courts will dilute the checks on the tyranny of the majority, that is exactly how it is intended. We are in a major redrawing of boundaries in a newer form of democracy (illiberal?). Its foundation, the constitution, and balance of powers in a parliamentary democracy, are about to be rewritten. This is the beginning of the end of how we may have known democracy, even if nominally.

Incidentally, do read Shahbaz Rana’s story in this Paper of May 3, 2023.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 5^th, 2023.

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