Climate change, rising temperatures and our health

According to the World Bank, Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change. Apart from the devastating floods we face periodically, a significant direct consequence of climate change is rising temperatures and increased heatwaves. According to the world climatological database, the average temperature recorded in Pakistan between 1980 and 2021 increased by about 0.9 degrees centigrade. The Indo-Pak subcontinent witnessed an unprecedented heatwave in March and April 2022, majorly attributable to climate change. Increased temperatures impact health and well-being in several ways. Indirectly, heatwaves adversely affect agricultural productivity and nutritional deficits by increasing food insecurity. Higher temperatures during growing seasons lead to faster crop maturation, lowering plant yield and rising food insecurity. An increase in inland water temperatures also reduces riverine fishery production. The incidence of droughts also rises due to temperature-driven evapotranspiration. Droughts affect livelihoods, food and water scarcity. Increasing temperature likewise enhances the salinity of water reservoirs, making them more brackish and conducive for propagating pathogens that cause gastrointestinal disorders.

Heatwaves result in more fatalities than any other natural catastrophe. The direct link between exposure to extreme heat and kidney damage, as well as the aggravation of underlying cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, mental health disorders and unfavourable pregnancy outcomes, has been conclusively demonstrated by empirical research. There is a higher incidence of preterm deliveries, low birth weight, stillbirths and neonatal stress in hot temperature exposures. According to the Lancet study on the state of health in Pakistan, between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant rise in the prevalence of respiratory illnesses, kidney disease and ischemic heart disease. In 2019, ischemic heart and respiratory diseases were among the top five causes of death, as opposed to 1990, when the leading five causes were all communicable diseases. After India, we have the highest number of stillbirths in the region. Unfortunately, it is the poor who suffer the most as they have fewer resources to shield themselves from the heat. We need accurate epidemiological data and in-depth research to develop targeted interventions to protect the groups most at risk for heat-related illnesses.

The temperature of the land’s surface is influenced by the presence of open green spaces and forest cover, which cools the ground. On the contrary, habitation contributes to a rise in temperatures. Our rapidly expanding population has substantially impacted deforestation and the loss of green spaces. From 2001 to 2021, we lost 1% of our tree cover. The rapidly growing population has caused the intrusion of agricultural land to meet increasing housing needs. From 2017 to 2020, Pakistan’s arable land fell by 3%. The uncontrolled urban sprawl is also a factor in the rise in city temperatures. For instance, from 2004-2005 to 2019-20, the percentage of households using air conditioners climbed from 8% to 13.5% in urban areas and from 3.1% to 6.7% in rural ones. One of the primary sources of producing dry heat is the use of air conditioners.

While we can justly hold the developed world accountable for climate change, we cannot absolve ourselves of the irresponsible way we have overstrained our environment. We are now paying the price for how we have degraded and destroyed our biodiversity and upset the ecological balance by overconsuming our natural resources. For people to be more resilient and better equipped to adapt to the vicissitudes of climate change, we must lower our fertility rate and bring it down to sustainable levels. Creating a balance between people and resources is essential to ensuring the survival, prosperity and well-being of the present and future generations.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 22^nd, 2023.

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