The patchwork

Politics dominates the matrix of concern above economics and security

Not knowing what to do in this period of political chaos and uncertainty we willy-nilly perpetuate status quo. We hope there may be a way out, something just might turn up as we move along and hold on to what is. Economic emergency seems to have faded with a likely deal with the IMF. Galloping inflation seems to have been assimilated by the masses despite difficulties it would or should have generated without a feared outrage.

Something complex is at play here ameliorating pain expected with rising prices. The dispossessed will still be crushed but that news always travels slow unless it is also a spectacle. The middle class, mostly salaried, is struggling though. That has more to do with innate resilience than measly handouts governments give in populist political palliatives. For the moment thus, politics yet again dominates the matrix of concern above economics and security.

Begin with Imran Khan and his PTI. He dismissed the two provincial assemblies in a hope that it might trigger general elections. He is now fighting to elect those assemblies back in the earliest timeframe. No amount of reasoning or wizardry in one flimsy logic or another can address this paradox. The best that can be said is that failing to move the scale in favour of countrywide general elections including the centre, which was his real focus of attainment, he is resigned to getting the two assemblies back and re-plug into the system which he had fallaciously exited. He is also fighting to reinstate his MNAs who he had ordered resign from their membership but has now had second thoughts about.

By dismissing two provincial assemblies and reneging the membership in the National Assembly he was reduced to a side-show on the roads with a popularity that seemed immaterial and without an ability to influence decision-making in the constitutional if not governmental forums. Popularity must translate into formal leverage to carry value. Without it, it only remains hollow. For the moment, his popularity has not delivered IK the pathway to power.

The PDM, primarily the PML-N, has its own preferences and priorities. They wish to hold on to power and not hold any elections, provincial or national, even if there exist no assemblies to govern the affairs or time runs out and holding onto power without a mandate becomes a clear and a crass violation of the Constitution. They think they can manipulate and ‘manage’ necessary legal cover from a divided judicial house in their favour. They would, at the least, wish to get all convictions and indictments waived off Nawaz Sharif demanding from the Supreme Court to annul all its earlier pronouncements and sentences against him before any electoral exercise, or vacating government after it has run out of its constitutional term. They would use all legal processes and administrative powers to deny constitutional obligations till it has achieved its minimum agenda to cleanse Nawaz Sharif off the blots in the name of seeking a ‘level playing field’.

The recent proceedings in the Supreme Court over the constitutional matter of holding and announcing elections to the two dissolved assemblies will more likely reinforce the status quo. The real value of any court pronouncement is in paving the way for an all-round electoral and democratic direction to the country which remains engulfed in irresolvable uncertainty. Whatever be the weight of the SC pronouncement, the political system will need to acquiesce to Court orders before those become meaningful. It may not, given the confrontational and destructive nature of politics country has been faced with. It is likely, thus, that there will be other hurdles before the decision is implemented in its true spirit.

And even though the resident state power is obligated to ensure compliance of SC orders, it may force another confrontation of the all-powerful military with a larger part of the political establishment which aligns with the suggestion to avoid elections. Fearing such pernicious internal and institutional misalignment the Supreme Court decision tended to be amenable, palatable and least offensive. The fact that most parties to the dispute consider the decision supportive of their stance bears testimony to the geniality of the order. The SC restricted itself to the two provincial elections in question than give a more generic if rational order for schedule of elections to all assemblies in a reasonable timeframe.

A split in the Bench may have checked its proclivity to give a more profound but corrective direction to a faltering polity. In so doing we may have lost the opportunity to dictate a steadier and resolute direction to country’s democratic future amidst fratricidal politics. Only if all democratic institutions function normally will democracy prosper. Politics needs to learn from the consequences of its derailment.

What may then ensue in the near term? Elections to the two assemblies will be willy-nilly held; and the moment those assemblies are in place the democratic structure, moth-eaten now, will restore itself to its former, if complete, form. If the PTI members in the NA are restored to their elected positions following numerous court decisions annulling their resignations, the NA too will begin to look complete. The fact that these shall be recovered and restored from their currently fragmented form, these will begin to look full even if in spirit and function they will remain hollow because of their patchwork reconstitution. A fresh election would have provided the vigour to what is already stale and imposed but we will have to live with what will only smell fouler and more odious with time — and least effective. Political games will go on. We would have been unable to mend what is broken.

If there is one thing that can be discerned from this experience of politico-legal combine, it is the perpetuation of status quo and least ruffling of feathers. If some wish to extend this conclusion as the governing theme by those who can change the course of proceedings and the direction of the country it may not be too out of place. We need to now wait for August and see if the PDM will vacate the government, if elections are indeed held, and if the politics can right itself to function in the interest of the people. What will be vile, and revolting, will be an acquiescent and demonstrative effort to provide relief and create space for individuals (politicians), regardless of their status and popularity, to be absolved of convictions, indictments or wholesale absolution from alleged or committed crimes.

This may be our best bet to get rid of the dinosaurs who have brought us to ruin, and hold promise in the alternate leadership. It is a case of finding some redemption in futile circumstances or looking for opportunity in adversity. I guess that is about the most one can hope for.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 3^rd, 2023.

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