The deepening global power vacuum after Ukraine war

The year 2022 ended with unabated global security as well as environmental, energy and food crisis; and in the year 2023, there is no likelihood of a positive transformation as far as stability in fragile international order is concerned. Ceaseless war in Ukraine leading to dangerous schism in the US-Russia relations is a major source of global crisis in which nexus between Moscow and Beijing continue to challenge the so-called US-led tutelage in world affairs.

Ukraine certainly remained the core of crisis during the year 2022 and is expected to remain so in 2023. From February 24, 2022 (when Russia attacked Ukraine) till now, the world order is badly shaken because of two opposite objectives of Moscow and Washington: to bleed Russia in Ukraine and to weaken the West, particularly NATO.

In its December 24, 2022 issue of The Economist (London), an article entitled “It has to be Ukraine” states: “By standing up to Russia’s despot, Ukrainians have protected their neighbors. Had he conquered Ukraine, he might have attacked Moldova or Georgia next, or menaced the Baltic States.” Ukraine is critical to Russia inasmuch it is to the West. For Russia, Ukraine getting closer to NATO was a red line which would mean absorbing that Slavic country from where the state of Russia originated in 9^th century AD.

Dr Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State and Harvard University Professor, in his recently published book, Leadership Six Studies in Word Strategy, rightly touches the sensitivity of Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine in the following words: “If Ukraine were to join NATO, the security line between Russia and Europe would be placed within 300 miles of Moscow — in effect eliminating the historic buffer which saved Russia when France and Germany sought to occupy it in successive centuries. If the security border were to be established on the western side of Ukraine, the Russian forces would be within the striking distance of Budapest and Warsaw. The February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in flagrant violation of international law, is thus largely an outgrowth of a failed strategic dialogue or else of an inadequately undertaken one.” Worse than war in former Yugoslavia which shattered peace in the Balkans region during 1990s, the war in Ukraine is involving almost the whole of Europe and other NATO members either in the form of sending military supplies to Kyiv or volunteers fighting against Russian forces.

Standoff in Ukraine reflects the failure of global powers in managing a crisis which, in the last almost one year, has tended to inflict widespread physical and material losses on Moscow and Kyiv. But, the war of nerves and psychological pressure exerted from both sides against each other comes at the cost of further widening of vacuum in the global order. The breakdown of concert of Europe system which maintained a semblance of peace from 1815 till 1914 crumbled when the system of consultation which was the essence of preventing the outbreak of a major war collapsed. Presently, more than 100 years after the end of the First World War, one can observe relative breakdown of communication and crisis management mechanism between the West and Russia.

The absence of consultation, negotiations, diplomacy and mediation to end the Russia-Ukraine standoff means the principal backers of Kyiv in the form of NATO allies are confident that by providing sophisticated weapons to fight against the beleaguered Russian forces, Moscow can be defeated. But, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine military standoff is a clear indication that the war will continue testing the resilience of Kyiv and the confidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin that despite heavy physical losses and sanctions, territorial status quo will be maintained in Ukraine while Moscow will keep its occupied areas and sustain military attacks.

Vacuum in global order is not only reflected in the Russia-Ukraine war, but it also means declining American influence leadership in global affairs; surge of Sino-Russian strategic understanding; and failure of world leaders to cope with the rising threat of climate change and global warming. Furthermore, the role of those ambitious powers tied in a loose alliance called BRICS is also a reality which has the capability to challenge the US-led world order.

Be that as it may, one can figure out two major realities which will further deepen the vacuum in global order.

First, a deepening of global power vacuum would be dangerous because non-state actors, transnational groups and rogue elements in the international system can take advantage of the situation. When economic and energy fallout of the war in Ukraine is making the lives of millions of people miserable, the failure of global powers to manage growing security challenges emanating from flashpoints like North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine and Kashmir is also a reality.

Second, fragile decision-making is another factor causing a vacuum in the global order because those who wield power in the prevailing international system either lack capability or understanding to successfully manage crisis. The war in Ukraine is a classic example of the fragility of decision-making mechanism because almost a year has passed and neither the UN nor NATO or the Russian federation or the Peoples Republic of China is able to enforce a ceasefire. Bilateral and multilateral diplomacy which is required to prevent further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has failed to take off. And it is not only the war in Ukraine which has exposed faultlines in the global order, there are other critical issues which prove how divided global powers are. Issues ranging from alarming environmental, food, water, energy, economic and refugee crisis should have mobilised international actors to play their role but the reality on the ground is different.

In 2023, the world population reached 8 billion accentuating the plight of poor and underdeveloped countries to cope with the growing food, water and energy crisis. The threat of drought and famine looms large in different parts of the world along with enormous physical and material losses in various armed conflicts. Rich countries having control over International Air and Travel Agency (IATA) have miserably failed to check the rising costs of air travel despite the fact that the prices of petroleum products are declining. Lust for seeking more and more profit at the expense of customers has been accepted as a fait accompli by those who possess clout in global policies.

When erosion of ethics and values at the international level diminishes caliber, standard and work ethics in spheres of public dealing, the fault lies with those who control the instruments of global power. It is not only IATA which is responsible for not controlling air fare, but the failure to manage escalation of food, energy and prices of various essential items also reflects a serious vacuum in decision-making on the part of those international institutions that are responsible for ensuring stability.

The aforementioned realities indicate how fragile world order has become where the concerned stakeholders are unable to fulfil their responsibilities, thus augmenting global crisis at different levels.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 17^th, 2023.

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