Can climate challenges prompt cooperation in South Asia?

The potential for climate change instigated threat multiplication is particularly severe in South Asia

Climate change has justifiably been described as an existential threat to humanity. Varied climate-related impacts have already made life miserable for a large proportion of people living within poorer countries. Climate-induced changes are also exerting major pressure on natural resources shared across contested political borders. It is vital that countries facing shared climate-induced threats work collaboratively to deal with this inevitable challenge.

The latest international climate moot in Egypt finally led to an acknowledgement for creating a fund for ‘loss and damage’ to compensate poorer countries facing the brunt of climate impacts. In turn, Pakistan has been able to secure significant donor pledges to deal with the devastation caused by the unprecedented flooding experienced by the country over this past summer. It is vital for Pakistan to use the funds made available to it wisely and honestly to provide disaster relief and to build domestic resilience against the multifaceted onslaught of climate change.

At the same time, however, countries like Pakistan, which share vital natural resources with hostile neighbours, need to pay greater heed to the threat multiplying impacts of climate change. The potential for climate-instigated threat-multiplication is particularly severe across South Asia where populous countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh share increasingly-stressed water sources like the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers. Landlocked Afghanistan is also facing major water scarcity, yet it has no formal water-sharing agreement with any of its neighbours including Iran and Pakistan.

Pakistan itself is highly dependent on the Himalayan glacial melt which feeds the mighty Indus River. The Himalayan glacier is however steadily melting due to global warming which is exacerbating flooding events and, in the future, will deplete the amount of water available within the tributaries of the Indus. While Pakistan is heavily dependent on the freshwater supplied by the Indus, this river system flows into Pakistan via India, which is also entitled to around 20% of the water generated by the Indus basin based on their bilateral treaty.

It is no small accomplishment that the Indus Water Treaty has held for over 60 years despite repeated Indo-Pakistan conflicts. However, this treaty is under immense stress. India has been threatening Pakistan with cutting off its water supply during times of increased friction. Pakistan also suspects that Indian dams are impacting the water flow into Pakistan, and this disgruntlement will continue to grow as the Himalayan glacier shrinks. Such mutual mistrust is unconstructive and adds further stress to an already fraught bilateral relationship. India and Pakistan need to instead develop a holistic and cooperative approach to manage the increasingly erratic water flows from the Indus.

Besides jointly managing the Indus, India and Pakistan can also work together to tackle the air pollution which inflicts major cities like Delhi and Lahore each winter. There is also potential for cooperation to contend with other shared threats including seawater intrusion, droughts and desertification. Putting in place cooperative mechanisms to deal with the threat of climate change will not be easy, but such out-of-the-box thinking can turn climate-induced threats into an opportunity for climate diplomacy which would provide much-needed respite to an otherwise acrimonious relationship. A plethora of multilateral and bilateral agencies should be interested in supporting such environmental cooperation if the leaders of these two nuclearised rival nations can muster the political will to work together.

If India and Pakistan manage to set aside their differences for dealing with climate change, it would provide a big boost to enhancing broader resilience building and mitigation measures which can traverse political borders in the same way that the climate threats do.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 13^th, 2023.

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