Where does Pakistan stand in Mideast realignment?

Amid a flurry of activity between China and GCC, Pakistan saw the growing rapprochement positively as this close affinity would make CPEC a preferred conduit for their bilateral trade over reduced transportation cost, bringing two million jobs and billions in revenues to the cash-starved country through Gwadar port.

In March, Islamabad’s role between Beijing and GCC was described as facilitative when it, for the first time, invited Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to attend OIC — world’s second largest institution after UN. It was also seen as “a reminder of the high value” Muslim-majority states placed on commercial relations with China.

Both China and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest and are keen to set up oil refineries in Pakistan yet red tape, excessive regulations, unfavourable policies and extensive documentation procedures pose threats to Islamabad’s development. Absence of a strong federal government additionally puts investments at bay.

While Pakistan remains jolted by political and economic crises, China and GCC are strengthening their relationship. The largest, high-level Arab-China diplomatic dialogue drew praise from the bloc: adoption of a joint statement including signing of 34 agreements and MoUs denoted a new regional formation.

In a complex global landscape, leaders emphasised strengthening strategic partnership, concluding FTA and holding 6+1 meeting on trade and economy. The consensus will accelerate negotiations on free trade, helping GCC build logistics and shipping hubs and attract capital and technology.

Even for non-GCC countries — from Algeria, Egypt, Djibouti, Iraq, Libya, Mauritania and Morocco to Sudan, Palestine, the Comoros, Tunisia and Yemen — the summit was a dawn of a multipolar world, a qualitative shift, a new starting point, a new path, a common platform, a new era, a collective vision and an effort of political and economic integration.

As GCC viewed China an “essential” partner and showed keenness to jointly address global economic challenges — including food and energy security — integration in future projects through investment in innovation, technology and energy and collaboration in regional security would diversify regional economies.

China’s rapid economic growth and technological development have transformed it into a leading global power. The bloc commended versatility in trade, investment, energy, education, scientific research, environment and health cooperation and sought to exchange experiences and expand partnerships in the light of its ambitious development plans.

All resource-rich GCC countries — Bahrain (Economic Vision 2030), Kuwait (Vision 2035), Oman (Vision 2040), Qatar (National Vision 2030), Saudi Arabia (Vision 2030) and the UAE (We the UAE 2031) — have announced long-term visions to cut reliance on hydrocarbons to diversify their economies.

Given GCC goals such as development of port infrastructure and a strong high-tech sector for national economic diversification are also key components of the BRI, Chinese infrastructural and technological chef-d’oeuvre offers promising opportunities for regional development.

Beijing and GCC enjoy a historic trade relationship. In 2011, China was predicted to be GCC’s top trading partner in 2020. Over last 10 years, bilateral trade has exceeded $300 billion, balance of mutual direct investment amounts to $27 billion and some 200 projects are being implemented within BRI framework.

Twenty-one regional states have joined BRI including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, touted as top destinations of Chinese construction projects by volume. Riyadh has agreed to synergise its vision with the BRI; collaboration between BRI and GCC economic plans will further boost Gulf significance and evolution as a “modern Arab region”.

The US human rights intervention and characterisation of other governance systems as “autocratic” is one common concern of China and GCC. Beijing avoids intervening in regional conflicts and calls for resolving differences through dialogue. The middle position allows both sides to expand strategic cooperation and provide diplomatic support to each other.

A reaffirmation to support mutual core interests and territorial integrity and defend the principle of non-interference was explicitly reflected in Riyadh Declaration. It also marked signing of comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia and a pledge to deepen strategic partnership with GCC. The trend is gaining traction as some 12 Arab countries have so far entered into such a partnership.

The expansion of BRICS — a bloc of world’s largest emerging economies — is another realm where goals of China and GCC converge. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have shown interest to join the grouping. BRICS enlargement can bring economic benefits to the region and contribute to formation of equitable relations.

In an era of engagement, Biden is pursuing a policy of decoupling, even threatened to make Riyadh “pariah”. The US also exploits regional flashpoints to its advantage. By seeking economic and industrial integration, committing unwavering support to regional security and denouncing malicious campaign against Qatar, China is capturing GCC attention.

Upset by failure of its pivot to Asia, the US has been pressuring Gulf countries to curb their relations with China. As Beijing and GCC pull out all the stops to broaden strategic partnership, Washington is mindful of Chinese influence and strategic accords with GCC.

But it’s too late to block regional realignment for infrastructure development, and technological advancement is a new marvel of GCC that underpins its economic diversification, national security and strategic interests and will potentially lift its international importance and inflate global influence.

Unfortunately, Pakistan, like in Afghanistan, is relying largely on facilitating talks because it has nothing to offer in business terms. Foreign remittances, a cornerstone of sharply-plunging forex reserves, are on decline as all political parties wax lyrical about their economic successes.

There is a glaring and sheer divergence between thought and approach of the government and the public. From the perspective of political elite, Pakistan has got an enormous potential and is strategically well-placed. From the viewpoint of professionals, such as engineers and technology experts, the country is losing its charm over inflation, economic and political instability and dearth of employment.

Nobody seems to be affronted by heart-wrenching scenes of talent outflow, which may increasingly obfuscate Pakistan’s already dystopian future. Unskilled labour, mismatched with GCC visions, puts economic security further in peril. Meanwhile, India and GCC are bridging differences on long-inert FTA including food and energy security and technology transfers.

More worryingly, successive national leaders remain oblivious to exacting challenges in the offing and are ecstatic in triumphing a consolation win through sporadic debt relief or getting a pat from America without making effective measures to stimulate the economy, let alone modernise it. This is an alarming sign for national security policy that ranks economic security as a top priority and seeks a swift wake-up call.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 25^th, 2022.

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