Shepherding Pakistan in post-truth era

Cambridge dictionary describes post-truth as “relating to a situation in which people are more likely to accept an argument based on their emotions and beliefs, rather than one based on facts.”

As enunciated by our syndicate in previous OpEds published in the prestigious Express Tribune, Pakistan shares a challenging neighborhood with giants and hot spots: China, Russian Federation (through her influence in Central Asian Republics), India, Middle East and Afghanistan. The past two decade witnessed Pakistan sharing her neighborhood with the mighty US because of its military presence in Afghanistan, strategically sandwiching her between the geographical giants and their interests. The US safe exit from Afghanistan became possible through Pakistan’s military leadership lending a subtle hand in an internationally recognised settlement otherwise things could have been disastrous.

The carbonated geostrategic environment woven around Pakistan has not given her a sigh of relief; and adding the economic woes, political tribulations and exogenous shocks like massive floods and pandemic, Pakistan and her politico-military leadership have had their hands full. Post-truth politics in Pakistan has become poisonous, divisive, toxicant and internecine. While the state is busy in firefighting and erecting firewalls against physical and informational assault on institutions, detractors and spin masters from within and foreign lands, especially India, have found an open playing field to proliferate divisive themes to hit Pakistan’s moorings and roots.

A glance at economic health of the country, based on input from IFIs and Bloomberg, indicates that forex reserves of the country dropped to around $10 billion in April 22 which were around $16 billion in January 22. The depreciation of the rupee still continues and the exchange rate peaked at Rs240 per dollar before showing some improvement in recent days. Manufacturing Index is declined by 38.8 from March to August 2022 and no signs of FDIs.

The data collected from Pakistani print and electronic media as well as analyses by international watchdogs of economy suggests that massive floods have come like an exogenous shock for Pakistan’s economy and almost 60% of the arable land was adversely affected causing damages to Pakistan worth around $31 billion; the indirect cost is difficult to fathom and the affect is ongoing. Successive governments’ decisions to acquire IMF loans for balance of payments support have also contributed to the ongoing economic crisis. Conditional ban on imports, increase in tariffs, imposition of high taxes on fuel and energy have resulted in food inflations breaking the back of middle class as well as poverty-stricken masses.

Consequent increases in the cost of production for the manufacturing sector as well as importers, coupled with shrinking incomes due to high prices, have put additional stress on the economy. The situation may be further aggravated under political uncertainty and chaos, especially when faced with prolonged political agitations, protests, law and order situation, bandhs, etc. They may also jeopardise the ongoing projects and economic relief and rehabilitation programmes, which are the need of the hour for the country.

Few countries are interested in investing in Pakistan. Qatar is contemplating to invest in aviation industry worth around $5 billion, and KSA is likely to invest in oil refinery $10 billion and similar other projects, but the investment has been put on hold due to reigning political chaos in Pakistan.

Economic imbalance in Pakistan is often used as a playing card for political gains. By putting political differences aside in this tight economic situation, where the country is facing flood damages, global recession and political turmoil, we must work together as a nation to get out of this crisis and achieve economic stability and prosperity. In this regard, priority may be accorded to minimise the trade deficit and build economic self-sufficiency by developing manufacturing sectors and promoting import substitution strategy. This will not just help decrease trade deficit but also strengthen the rupee. Besides, cottage industry should also be promoted. Bangladesh is an example for us where cottage industry is the essential part of industrial development. Even China followed the same model and built a cottage industry base for a massive industrialisation later.

Why we have added the element of ‘post-truth’ to this piece is because we are living in an era of information empowerment of the masses; and it’s very easy to spread information, disinformation and misinformation to build up false narratives and bewilder, confound and fluster the people, especially youths, and channelise their energies for enhancing political agendas.

Taking a cue from one of our articles published in a local English daily in 2018, the fall of the Gaddafi regime occurred due to disinformation and subterfuge. If one analyses the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, one thing was proven: a state losing monopoly on information would soon lose monopoly on governance (judiciary, police and military). Libya was targeted along the fault line of Cyrenaica vs Tripolitania and the power axis was shift towards Cyrenaica by design. People may have forgotten that Col Gaddafi took powers from Senussi Monarchy based in Cyrenaica and kept the power centred in Tripolitania. So when the chips were down, the chaos was ushered through Cyrenaica (Benghazi) based anarchist groups through sensitivities of tribal warfare and grievances against the regime. As the state lost monopoly on information, it gradually melted and lost monopoly over violence (judiciary, police and military).Gradually governance structures were demolished to usher in strategic chaos and the Gaddafi regime collapsed.

Can Pakistan afford strategic chaos and perpetual instability?

This is a million dollar question and warrants that all stakeholders should sit back and appreciate the challenges faced by Pakistan, as enunciated above. While political activities are important for health of any democracy, these should take a back seat and the head-honchos should put their heads together to chalk out a genuine course of action and strategy to put Pakistan’s slumping and drooping economy back on to a positive trajectory — a trajectory which gives hope to millions of energetic, enterprising but bewildered youth instead of making them fall prey to doomsday soothsayers.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 16^th, 2022.

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