No end to instability

Imran Khan has done it again. Whatever fault one finds with the process or the outcome of the Sunday by-elections, the conclusion remains the same. It is yet another evidence of his rising public support. Whether this support is from the Z generation, youthias, mumy-daddy culture, the burger crowd, fans club or cult following is beside the point. The relevant question is: what does he want to achieve by mobilising this support? His utterances after the win contain one clear message. Economic stability and growth cannot be achieved without first ensuring political stability. True, the economy cannot progress in an environment of uncertainty. Political instability is a major contributor to uncertainty. Investment is the key to economic growth. An uncertain political environment makes it hard to assess prospective returns of investment. The quality of political stability depends on effective political as well as economic institutions. These institutions function within the parameters of the country’s constitution.

This is where Imran Khan’s view of political instability comes into conflict with the rules of the game. He asserts that political instability resulted from the removal of his government and economic instability is the consequence. In fact, economic instability began with the inexplicable violations of the agreement with the IMF by his government. Such appeasements happen to achieve political objectives. One had thought that he was preparing to regain his lost political capital by calling early elections, a perfectly constitutional move. He tried it when it was too late and the opposition had outwitted him through the no-confidence motion, also a constitutional move. His surprise was that the powers that be had declared neutrality. Regardless, he continued to look towards the very same powers to force early elections on the government. If he succeeds, he will be sowing the seeds of continued political instability as he would be inviting the rivals to pay back in kind. Before nourishing the hope that a two-thirds majority will enable him to run roughshod over the opposition, bring back presidential rule and throw away the 18thamendment, he should not forget the failed attempt by Nawaz Sharif to become Amir-ul-Momineen towards the end of the last century.

In the unlikely case of the government conceding early elections, uncertainty and political instability will increase rather than decrease. The caretaker set up cannot take important policy decisions. Even local investors would sit on the fence during this time. The next government will also need time to settle down. The best bet is to let the present set-up muddle through until August next year. Hopefully, the IMF programme will be completed by then. The worst case scenario is that early elections are held and, typical of him, Imran Khan refuses to accept the results. With political behaviour like this, the end of instability is not nigh.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 21^st, 2022.

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