Moscow has set the stage for reenacting Crimea-2 order in the restive zones of Ukraine. Its decision to hold referendums in two of the Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine has shocked the world. It is bound to have ripple effects, and lead to more warfare. It is, nonetheless, not clear how the vote — supposed to be held from Sept 23 to 27 — will be conducted given that Russian-backed forces control only 60% of the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces are engaged in a dragger-drawn fight to retake Luhansk. The new strategy illustrates Russian desire to dig its heels in Ukraine, and to alter the geopolitical landscape bordering NATO states for all times to come. This offensive messaging to the West will have long-term consequences, and will drag in the US and its allies in a clash of titans in the region.
President Vladimir Putin went a step ahead as he ordered mobilisation of forces to the tune of two-million for the first time since WW-II. The Czar also warned the West that it could not be blackmailed, as Russia will make sure that it puts into full gear its entire arsenal. There is much to read between the lines, as Putin seems to be bouncing back in his political and military narrative after recent setbacks in Ukraine. Russia’s defence minister said 300,000 reserves have been called up to buckle up its forces on the ground. If history is any criterion, the region is at the verge of another Cuban Missile crisis, with the upped ante this time of Russian forces right in the heartland of Eurasia, and the Western forces groping in the dark on how to deal with the Red Army.
While the West has called into question the proposed sham referendums, it is in need of graduating beyond rhetoric. The reported pumping in of $2 billion arms into Ukraine has furthered the standoff. The region is in need of a diplomatic solution, and there is no time to blink. Russia is repeating a Sudetenland ordeal right inside Ukraine, and it is surely fraught with serious consequences. Regional stakeholders have to take a call considerately to avoid flabbergasting in an era of economic turmoil.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 22nd, 2022.
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