Mangla Dam may miss touching maximum level

With monsoon almost over, reservoir faces 46.83% shortfall

ISLAMABAD:

Alarm bells seem to have started ringing in water authorities over the possibility of Mangla Dam, the biggest water reservoir of the country, not filling up to its maximum capacity this year, jeopardising 13 million acre feet (MAF) Rabi supplies to Punjab.

The government faces a double whammy of damage to the wheat crop done by the recent devastating floods and food security of the country.

According the statistics released by the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) on Saturday, the water level in the dam stood at 1,193.05 feet against its maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet or – a staggering 46.83% short of its full capacity.

The figures released by Irsa slightly wary from that of the FFC. According to the authority, the water level in the Jhelum river at Mangla Dam was 1,193.05 feet, which was 143.05 feet higher than its dead level of 1,050 feet.

The huge shortage of water in the Mangla Lake is the real area for concern that is ringing alarm bells -- both in the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) and Punjab.
Punjab’s dependence on it during the late Kharif and the entire Rabi season is absolute. It covers 13 million acres spread across 10 districts of central Punjab that cannot be served from any other source.

Going by the advice of technical experts if the lake is not filled up to 80% by June 30, its filling chances get bleak. By July 17, the Mangla Lake stood at 1,193.05 feet: only 53.17% filled.

The monsoon season is almost over, with scattered heavy falls here and there. One reason for the huge water shortfall is that rains were sketchy in the catchment areas comprising the greater Mangla rim.

Water experts say from current level, the lake would be totally dependent upon the monsoon and the only question now is how closer it gets to the optimum level, certainly without getting filled.

“Irsa would be supporting Mangla filling as soon as supplies improve on Indus arm. It would reduce releases from Mangla corresponding to the increase in Chenab and Indus – by transferring water though the link canals (CJ and TP).”

However, water authorities can get some solace from the fact that heavy rains in southern Punjab have already provided the necessary moisture to the surface to meet some of the shortfall in the lake.

Last week Irsa Director (Operations) Khalid Idris Rana was quoted in the media as saying, “As far as Mangla’s storage is concerned, it will not go beyond 1,170 level against its maximum storage of 1,242.”

The case of Tarbela lake is different. Riding mighty Indus, fed by massive glacier melt, Tarbela has every chance of recouping its losses. It is a late riser and has almost assured supplies for July and August.

According to the FFC data released on Saturday, Tarbela Reservoir is being maintained at its maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet.

The combined live storage of country’s three major reservoirs (Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla) is 9.996 MAF which is 74.26% of total value of 13.461 MAF, the FFC added.

Moreover, it said River Indus was flowing in “medium flood” with a discharge of 327,000 cusecs while all other main rivers -- Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej were running normal.