Crises in Caucasus

The Caucasus is once again spitting fire. The volatile region in the Russian periphery seems to be edging towards a full-fledged military altercation. Armenia and Azerbaijani forces have reportedly clashed, and there are conflicting reports of severe casualties. This escalation is the latest since the end of war in 2020 over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh’s region. The fact is that Yerevan and Baku had failed to reach a political rapprochement over the period of years. Likewise, these skirmishes have come at a time when Ukraine and Russia are at war, having plunged the region in crises and literally impacting more than 100 states by virtue of cessation of food and energy supplies.

Armenian diplomacy is full blown as it has knocked on the doors of the EU, the US and Russia against its arch foes, and is seeking military retribution. Azerbaijan on the other hand, has historic lawful claims over the occupied swatches, and to this day has not been able to harness international support. This is another Kashmir and Northern Cyprus like situation, wherein Pakistan and Turkey, respectively, are keeping fingers crossed over their legitimate regional disputes. It remains to be seen what international reaction is in the making as major powers have called for caution and ceasefire among the warring sides.

This development in the Caucasus is another test of legitimacy for Russia. It has come close on the heels of a claim from Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelenskyy that his forces had pushed back the advancing Russian troops. Coupled with this is the surprise visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kiev as the Biden administration announced major military aid worth $2.8 billion for Ukraine and other European countries. Last but not least are the reports that President Vladimir Putin has sacked his military top brass on the warfront in Ukraine. Thus, this new flare-up must be studied in a similar context, wherein Moscow is on its toes to defend its writ in the region. Baku and Yerevan must see the broader picture and mind their steps.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 14^th, 2022.

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