Confident coalition?

The increasing likelihood that the IMF loan programme will be restored in the next few days seems to have breathed new confidence into the incumbent dispensation. That’s why Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has, in a televised address, expressed his belief that the PMLN-led coalition government will complete its term — which means continuing in the saddle for another 14 months. However, former prime minister Imran Khan may still have something to say about it. Beyond the fiery predictable rhetoric, Imran’s rallies have been sizeable enough to create law and order headaches for the government, and could well cause significant economic harm if they get out of hand.

But contrary to the belief of some analysts that revival of the IMF loan programme could stabilise the sinking economy and reduce anti-government sentiment among the public, Prime Minister Shehbaz’s recent comments actually revealed what may well be Imran’s next plan of attack. Shehbaz said the IMF did not trust the Imran-led government because it reneged on its agreement with the international financial institution. Imran will play this as him putting Pakistan first and Shehbaz taking foreign dictation, while the fact that the US wields disproportionately-high influence on the IMF will also play into Imran’s running narrative of ‘Washington kicked me out’.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shehbaz also noted that the IMF money, as well as the recent $2.3 billion loan approved by China to bolster Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, would not yield overnight results and that there would be several more bumps on the way to economic stability. However, while this may be obvious and undeniable for those that understand commerce and economics, it is unacceptable for millions of people for whom statistics mean nothing and who only know that they have been pushed past the brink by skyrocketing inflation.

Shehbaz did, however, take another hit at Imran by noting that raising fuel prices was a “painful” but necessary decision, and one that was taken to benefit the country, not his own party. This contrasts with Imran and his rhetoric over the energy price cuts that Imran ordered in a last-ditch attempt to save his government. Most experts also cite this and other unaffordable populist moves by the PTI government among the actions that angered the IMF. Shehbaz also said the same, noting that it was the PTI government that agreed to the IMF’s painful loan conditions such as those that raised fuel prices, and that the PML-N is only honouring the commitments made by its predecessors.

In another confident turn, Prime Minister Shehbaz also hinted that new measures to correct the economy would be announced in the next few days, while also giving an example of the foresight of past PML-N governments, whose initiatives such as laptop schemes were labeled corrupt by the PTI at that time but became an unmitigated success within a few years — when the PTI was in power. However, as his example shows, voters are a fickle bunch. Even good plans may not be enough to turn the tide and bring support for the coalition or weaken the PTI’s base. In the meantime, it appears that Imran will continue to use his disruptive power to force early elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2022.

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