Semblance of order in Punjab

A sigh of relief was evident in Punjab as President Arif Alvi approved the candidature of Balighur Rehman as the provincial governor. The advice from the Prime Minister had been pending for almost a month, raising stakes to the worst. As a step towards normalcy, an eight-member cabinet was sworn in providing the much-desired legitimacy to Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz, whose fate otherwise hangs in the balance as his election is sub judice at Lahore High Court. The retreat from the brink in Punjab is, at least, a welcome gesture and will provide some breathing space to the governance that had come to a naught since the crisis erupted in the first week of April. Nonetheless, the real contest rests on the floor of the Punjab Assembly as Hamza’s camp is apparently short of simple majority and the PTI-PMLQ combine is leaving no stone unturned to dislodge the PML-N government.

The province is in a fix. The decisions from the Supreme Court and the Election Commission that led to the unseating of 25 legislators is creating ripples. Now both the factions are out to extract political mileage from it. The PML-N is eagerly looking for bye-polls to marshal its new strength, whereas the opposition wants to exploit the existing arithmetic to its advantage. But what is toiling is the fact that litigations and recourse to Election Commission is the order of the day, and this has put the cart before the horse. Rehman’s becoming governor has almost rendered Sarfraz Cheema’s appeal infructuous, but the Sword of Damocles still hangs over Hamza’s beleaguered government.

The PML-N’s argument that the apex court verdict on Article 63-A has no retrospective effect is contestable, and up for a judicial review. This is where the future of Punjab politics resides too. But the biggest task before the ruling dispensation in Punjab is to get the budget approved, and its inability to do so will lead to its fall. With no possibility of floor-crossing in the money bill, Hamza will have to hold his breath. The province awes a period of stability and a consensus to keep a lid on jingoism. Extra-procedural measures and meddling in constitutional offices have set a bad precedent. Time to usher in a decorum of semblance.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 1^st, 2022.

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