Flood management during political turmoil

Even during normal times, Pakistan’s flood management has been poor. Today, as political polarisation is deepening at unprecedented speed, an economic meltdown is on the horizon and the people are facing record inflation. How will this impact flood management in the country? If history is any indicator, very often political interference is believed to be one of the major factors of poor governance during disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the correlation between the two.

Since the ruling coalition is under massive pressure from the PTI, lacks legitimacy and direction, and above all, the Prime Minister and 70% of his cabinet are facing corruption cases, flood management will be its last priority. This is likely to provide some leverage to flood and disaster managers to act independently and according to the plans. Having said that, it will indeed be useful for public policy experts to observe their performance as the flood season is already here.

The failure to respond to early warning signs can have disastrous consequences, which are already materialising in different parts of Pakistan. Drought is deepening in Chohlistan and Thar, and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) has devastated the north. On 7^th May, the Hunza district was badly devastated by a huge GLOF which caused massive disruption. According to experts, the ongoing heatwave in the Northern Areas accelerated the melting of glaciers earlier than usual. Reportedly, the GLOF swept away a “strategic bridge in northern areas, disconnecting it with China”. Normally, glacial lakes form in May but this year they developed a month earlier. We must not forget that the heatwave can also bring early floods as glacier melts have already been accelerated.

To understand the relationship between disaster management and political interference, let’s first look into the past floods and why manageable floodwaters turned into colossal catastrophes. Also, there is a need to acknowledge whether our state institutions harvested any lessons from the past disasters. In the aftermath of the 2010 super floods, the Supreme Court of Pakistan and provincial governments had formed commissions of inquiry. The Punjab government never publicly revealed the full commission report. Although the Sindh government disclosed the report, it never took follow-up action.

If coverage of the print media is any indicator, successive governments in Sindh and Punjab that happened to be the same political parties for many years did not bother to implement the recommendations of their commissions.

The Express Tribune reported on 14^th September 2014 — “2010 flood inquiry: officials accused of negligence [have been] promoted. Government of Sindh ignores commission’s report, fail to implement recommendations.” Another leading English daily reported on 17^th June 2011, “The PML-N may be clamouring for judicial inquiries into various incidents at the federal level and the accountability of public officials, but its government in Punjab is sitting quietly on the report of the judicial inquiry into the floods of 2010.” The daily further noted, “In its opening paragraph, the report used words like flustered, inexperienced and ill-equipped for provincial flood managers.”

A senior official of the Punjab government unofficially provided me with a copy of the Punjab Judicial Flood Inquiry Tribunal report, titled ‘A Rude Awakening’, conducted and authored by an incumbent judge of the Lahore High Court, Justice Mansoor Ali Shah. Both reports named many high officials who were responsible for negligence and corruption. The Sindh commission report also recommended action against officials and ordered them to resign and instructed the governments to act against them. Isn’t it strange that both governments instead promoted the accused officials?

Everyone in Pakistan is aware of the modus operandi of the unholy nexus of corrupt politicians and government officials. The ruling parties of the time, PML-N and PPP, preferred to protect their alliance with officials rather than punish those who had caused colossal damage to the country. This observation of the Supreme Court’s commission is sufficient to substantiate a prevalent view that political interference in disaster management has always caused harm. It notes, “Given the sharp political divide in Muzaffargarh and Dera Ghazi Khan, the possibility of mischief in inflicting cuts or politically motivated charges could not be conclusively ruled out.”

The recommendations of the three commissions also set standards to improve disaster management in the country. For instance, the Sindh report recommended introducing disaster management courses in all educational institutions. However, it has still not happened. The Supreme Court’s commission also recommended dozens of steps, including the following: improve and expand the early warning system; enhance flood mitigation measures. The commission noted that major damages occurred due to a lack of maintenance and repair of river embankments, canals and major highways/motorways that obstructed the natural course of water flows. Therefore, “it is imperative for the National Highway Authority (NHA) and the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) to carry out a joint survey to identify such points.”

Regarding encroachments, the commission noted that thousands of acres of Kutcha lands have been illegally encroached upon by local influential; and almost every local influence is an extension of a local MP. All the reports of commissions establish a surge of this practice in pond areas of barrages. One report noted painfully, “Unfortunately, provincial governments have indulged in encouraging illegal acts promoting encroachments. The governments must not permit encroachments.” Justice (retd) Zahid Kurban Alvi, the head of Sindh’s commission, noted, “The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has no concrete plan of action.”

The good news is that since then NDMA has developed a very comprehensive plan. The FFC, which was severely criticised by the Punjab commission, today seems to be in a much better position to handle floods. But the bad news is that on the ground, at the district and local levels, no disaster management structure exists. The flood-prone communities have been neglected at every stage of planning, implementation, review, and monitoring.

In 2019, PATTAN conducted a nationwide survey in disaster-prone areas. The purpose was to gather views of the disaster-prone communities on disaster governance and the participation of local people. Almost all (97%) of respondents residing along riverbanks said they had never been involved in any kind of planning and implementation by any official agency.

Shamelessly, provincial governments never let local governments function. Though under the National Disaster Management Act 2010, every district must have constituted disaster management structures at the local level, hardly 5% of the districts have fulfilled this responsibility. Pakistan as a signatory to SDGs and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) is obliged to achieve indicators of both policy instruments each year. Without localisation of disaster risk reduction measures, they cannot be achieved.

Despite structural weaknesses of our governance, it appears the flood management bodies i.e. FFC, NDMA, PDMAs, Met department, etc may have more room to act independently and relatively more efficiently if the ruling parties and unprecedentedly popular (opposition) party continue fighting each other. However, should the ruling parties involve district administrations in containing the PTI movement, disaster management is likely to suffer even more severely.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 27^th, 2022.

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