India’s Teflon Man strikes again

India, the largest democracy in the world, has just had another bout of state elections in five populous states. These state elections are widely viewed as a key midterm evaluation of the Narendra Modi-led BJP government, which had won a landslide second term during the general elections in 2019.

It is disconcerting to see the BJP bag four out of five state elections despite lackluster growth and the mishandling of the Covid pandemic by the incumbents. Yet, we now live in an era where strongmen have made a comeback across different countries around the world, ranging from the Philippines to Sri Lanka, and from Brazil to Hungary. Modi too has articulated a muscular, ambitious, but fundamentally intolerant vision for India.

Modi comes from a humble background, but he steadily rose in the ranks of the ultranationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the parent organisation of the Bharatiya Janata Party, to eventually become the Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2001. Modi was widely considered complicit in the 2002 Gujarat massacre of Muslims, due to which he remained persona non grata in the US. However, an Indian Supreme Court investigation eventually found no grounds to specifically prosecute Modi for the Gujarat communal violence. Modi, thus, stayed the Chief Minister of Gujarat till he won his first term as the Prime Minister of India in 2014.

Modi was credited with encouraging significant economic growth and attracting foreign investment in Gujarat, even if this growth was achieved without significantly improving the health, poverty and education indices within the state. Nonetheless, Modi won the general elections in 2014 based on his lofty promises of boosting economic growth across India and turning it into a global power.

Modi’s efforts to boost India’s economic standing have produced mixed results. Despite all the problems he has faced since he assumed the office of Prime Minister, Modi remains very popular, and his political resilience has earned him the title of being ‘Teflon Man’. Modi has even been embraced as a global leader, especially by the US which is keen to use India to contain China. In Pakistan, the rise of Modi is readily described as a perfect illustration of modern-day fascism or Nazism, but ground realities are more complex.

Modi has not only managed to polarise the Indian electorate along an ethno-religious divide, his party also readily appeals to the poorest Indians, with well-timed welfare packages disbursed just before key election cycles. While the BJP under Modi has cultivated a non-elite and rural support base, the party cadres and key government posts remain dominated by high-caste members who, in turn, promote vested interests of the ultra-rich. However, the failure of trickle-down growth is compelling the BJP leadership to exploit and ratchet up lingering communal tensions within India to a dangerous level.

While identity politics is still an effective recipe for electoral success in India, the ethnonationalist agenda of Modi and his followers is beginning to tarnish India’s international reputation.

The sweeping BJP midterm victory in the populous state of Uttar Predesh is particularly disturbing. Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of UP, has won a second term, which is leading to speculations that he may become a successor to Modi. Yogi Adityanath is an even more ardent mascot for Hindutva than Modi, and he has repeatedly made incendiary statements against the Muslim minority in India. Thus far, the relatively new Aam Aadmi Party has managed to wrestle Punjab away from the BJP, but the Congress still seems in disarray and utterly unable to challenge the BJP’s vice-like grip on Indian politics.

Putting the genie of communal hatred back in the bottle is going to prove much more difficult than opportunistic BJP politicians realise. Unfortunately, there is no credible political force in the country which has come up with an effective antidote to the communal poison that continues spreading and eroding India’s democratic credentials at alarming speed.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 25^th, 2022.

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