Indian sub in our waters

India’s continued belligerence and attempts to provoke a reaction belie Mod government’s desire for conflict

While the world’s attention is centred on the war in Ukraine, India continues its attempts to needle Pakistan, deploying submarines concerningly close to Pakistani waters. The Pakistan Navy intercepted and tracked an Indian Kalvari-class submarine earlier this week, with Pakistan military’s media wing ISPR saying it was the fourth such detection in five years. The last such incident came in October 2021, when a maritime patrol aircraft spotted an Indian submarine near Pakistani waters.

While the statement did not make clear how the submarine was spotted, reports suggest that it was most likely spotted by maritime surveillance when it came to snorkelling depth to recharge its batteries. While the ISPR statement only said that the submarine had “ulterior motives” and suggested that it may have been deployed for reconnaissance and information gathering during the ongoing Pakistan Navy Exercise SEASPARK-22, we must note that the Kalavari-class are attack submarines, meaning they are fully capable of attacking above and below the water if India had significantly more “ulterior motives” than surveillance. The ISPR statement does not either mention whether the submarine was spotted in Pakistani’s territorial waters or its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). While both are violations, the former is a much more significant a breach — Pakistan’s territorial waters stretch for 12 nautical miles off the coast, while the EEZ is about 290,000 square kilometres.

Whatever the case, India’s continued belligerence and attempts to provoke a reaction from Pakistan rather belie Mod government’s desire for conflict. We have seen in the past how Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used false flags and imagined threats to divert attention from domestic and international policy failures to Pakistan. Right now, one of the biggest stories in India is the Modi government’s failure to repatriate Indian students from Ukraine, or even get them to safety elsewhere. Videos have circulated on social media of Pakistani missions, along with other foreign aid groups and individuals providing assistance to hapless Indian students. In contrast, India’s foreign missions in Ukraine and elsewhere are being slammed for spending more time promoting yoga and Hindutva ideology and wasting Indian taxpayer money on defending Modi, denying abuses of minorities in India, and actively harassing Indian dissidents.

It is also notable that Uttar Pradesh — India’s largest state — just completed its local elections, and while most analysts acknowledged that Modi’s BJP will easily retain control of the state, they are expected to lose a significant amount of seats from their current 73 per cent majority. The election also brought significant reporting on the mismanagement of the state under BJP rule, with high inflation and falling formal employment cited in many reports. In fact, one Washington Post story actually had a BJP voter spell out why the party remains popular. A cremator in Varanasi, after decrying the government many failings, including refusing to provide him with a mask, said he would still vote for it because the BJP has made sure that “Muslims now stay in line” and “Hindus finally feel secure”.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 5^th, 2022.

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