The losing fetish for camp politics

The comfort of a fixed camp is easy but denies us access to all markets, finance, trade and investment

It is only sometime back that we declared geo-economics the new geo-strategy which literally trumped geopolitics, implicitly our bane. Yet after each visit to China geopolitics rears its ugly head over and above what we may have put in place to keep our true-north aligned. Our collective default recourse is to challenge the world since we have China on our back and most roadblocks in the relationship stand cleared in the recent visit (pun intended). Lest it be misunderstood, economics remains an essential plank in this association; perhaps the most eminent, and yet the overall sense is that we are wholly and fully in China’s camp per our preference. Which too would be alright except that the relationship must be rational than emotive.

The prime minister may next be travelling to Russia. This surely came about after reinitiating the contact with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Right after claiming a most successful visit to China a visit to Russia will only reinforce our proclivity for iron-brothers. If it can also render much needed support in critical areas it can be a healthy windfall. But that is only if we can keep our zealotry for geopolitics in control and let geo-economics do the talking.

What, though, might complicate the visit is the ongoing fracas between the western world and Russia on Ukraine and over sensitive security issues in Europe and around Russia. Many others have visited Russia in these times — Macron of France, Scholz of Germany and Erdogan of Turkey — but their visits related to the crisis and included Kiev in their schedule. The intent was clear and so was the purpose. But when IK visits Russia in these environs when a war may be ensuing it just might transmit differently across the globe when sensitivities are so acutely frayed. Someone in the Foreign Office needs to flag this aspect as the PM takes the plunge. If indeed the PM still visits Russia its obvious political overtones will only complicate matters further. True, Putin might be pleased and Xi may nod approval but the fallout from the competing camp may make matters even more tenuous for a faltering economy.

Were the west to be displeased with the visit or its timings — it also depends how we project the intent and the purpose and in what terms we choose to trumpet its success at its completion — the payout could be huge. With the FATF, the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Paris Club, Arab donors and who’s who of the economic world under the western ambit we may not have muscle enough to stand the pressure which is sure to accompany. And just as we tout our resilience and national dispensation to face off strong-arm leveraging it will help to review our immediate and not so recent past. Neither are we ready to sacrifice and give up a part of our privilege — by paying our taxes — hence any chance that we will live by tying stones to our stomach to bide through difficult times is only a pipedream. Our sustenance as an economy is tied to Moody’s indicating relative improvement in our investment and growth status enabling instruments like IMF tranches, Sukuk and Euro Bonds, and bilateral debt hold us aloft.

If you are under the spotlight of a watchdog for loose legislation against money-laundering and financial laxity, and if you must return fifteen billion dollars in interest over accumulated debt and churn out fifteen billion more to account for CAD — and this must go on for the foreseeable future since the combined political intellect is incapable of thinking a solution to this national predicament nor does it have the capacity to put its head together with the needed seriousness to extricate the nation from this bedeviling state — you better know which side to butter your toast. Tread carefully zealots. And this does not yet include what all is at stake in strictly defence and security domain around which we boast our ability and capacity to thwart aggression of any kind. Simply put the US is as important to our health as China is and Russia may be. That should perhaps restrain inclinations for a multi-polar world where we can easily ensconce in one bosom or another while missiles trade over us between Camp USA and Camp The Noble Warriors. It doesn’t get any cheaper as we serve to only beat the drums on the side. Not for us to chart our route out of the challenges that bedevil us. Ever the rentiers.

Yet, how can a more intimate relationship with Russia serve us better other than our lion-heart PM gallivanting with another strongman, Vladimir Putin, and spiting the over-rated, good for nothing, Joe Biden, who wouldn’t even call? A few things can be done if the Russians weren’t as scared of their business relationship with India — who happens to be their longest-living ally and defence partner and owns about eighty percent if not more of its defence inventory sourced in Russia. These include building us the north-south gas pipeline, getting the steel mill to function again and begin producing steel, source more potatoes from us for keeping their spirits high in the deadly winter cold of Russia, support us with our defence needs, and sell us a few copies of the S-400. They are usually more lavish with others when they also offer them nuclear power plants but I guess we already have what we can handle and we may not test them on these. Yes, better seed technology for potatoes to produce those in types most suited to their needs. And if they will permit an oil or a gas pipeline to be built from or through Kazakhstan to Pakistan.

Each of what I mention isn’t insignificant but what shall still catch the fancy of our armchair warriors — that we indeed now stand in solidarity with a pole successfully mined in our imagination against another which wrought much pain to our sensitivity aka Afghanistan. Exuberance and zealotry can serve us a perfect blinker.

If geo-economics shall guide us, geopolitics should take a back seat. There is a lot that we depend on China for and Russia can help us in areas fundamental to our long-term health — these two are instrumental in how our economic fortunes may improve — but the US not only loans or enables us to loan more for our immediate short-term financial predicaments but is key to keeping us connected and engaged with the world where prosperity can buy us some share. It is also super-critical in supporting Pakistan’s critical defence capabilities — less said the better. The Chinese are no easy donors and you can’t blame them for it but our needs are diverse and complex and immediate. We must thus keep all our windows open on all sides. The comfort of a fixed camp is easy but denies us the access to all markets, finance, trade and investment to meet our geostrategic need for all-round global economics to endow upon us the capacity to be effective and noteworthy. That only is the true test of our geo-economic success.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 11^th, 2022.

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