Inflationary trend is here to stay. At an average rate of around 10 per cent consistently for the last six months, it has reached a two-year high of 12.96 per cent. The month of January has seen inflation touch 14.6 per cent, and is casting an adverse impact on the economy, as well as on the purchasing power of the consumers. Apparently the prime reason behind this escalation is the rise in oil and food prices internationally, but the Omicron bite is making it more awkward. These are the factors with which the global economy has to live on for many years to come, but in our case there is a lack of foresight. The government’s inability to curb unnecessary imports and buoy the rupee against the dollar will continue to wreck the ship of the national economy.
The million dollar question is: what to do? On the one hand, the government claims that the growth trend is balanced, and there has been considerable progress in exports, along with a bumpy agrarian yield. But the flip side is mismanagement on the part of the authorities when it comes to keeping an eye on demand and supply. There is literally no control over hoarders and black-marketers, and the result comes in the form of increasingly burdening consumers. The situation also varies from city to city. Food inflation in urban areas is at around 14 per cent, whereas in rural areas it is slightly lower. With a 12 per cent rise in food prices, prices of non-perishable food items surged by 13.7 per cent, while those of perishable stuff slid by around 7 per cent. Two more factors such as house rent revision and rising transportation cost have made life of the common man even more miserable.
The worst is yet to come as the central bank will have to review its interest rate, which are now pinned on headline inflation, rather than evolving rates. But by all means this double-digit enigma will stay on and keep on browbeating public welfare. The breather cannot be expected any time soon as the mercury owes more to external factors than those of exigency at home. Nonetheless, ours is a price spiral market and it is feared that the setting in of Ramazan will further lead to push and pull, and lack of decorum will take its toll.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 3rd, 2022.
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