S-400 and nuclear threshold in South Asia

The induction and deployment of the S-400 air defence system by India along its Western border has started a new debate in the region: how will it affect the military balance? In retrospect, Pakistan pre-empted this by testing its enhanced range Babur cruise missile and conveyed to the Indian military as well as the RSS cabal that the balance of military power will be maintained at all cost.

While the S-400 has become a new showpiece for the Indian military, there needs to be a more serious debate about its impact on the nuclear threshold in the region. But before that, we first need to understand how nuclear brinkmanship operated in South Asia during February 2019. After the Balakot ‘tree strike’ incident occurred, the international community failed to condemn India for breaching Pakistan’s air defence systems and crossing the international border. Pakistan, in return, initiated a calculated response in the form of Operation Swift Retort and struck Indian military targets across the LoC. The Pakistani military command put a sizeable number of aircraft package not only to strike the ground targets but also to shoot down two IAF fighter jets, making sure that Wing Commander Abhinandan lands into Pakistan as a war trophy.

What most of the people miss is what happened after PAF’s Operation Swift Retort.

India did climb the escalation ladder; it did some missile posturing and even communicated to Pakistan through some friends that it was contemplating a missile strike. However, the saner military commanders in India knew that further escalation would take India into a blind alley, where a high intensity skirmish could result into nuclear conflagration. India made a lot of hue and cry, the international community jumped in and things cooled down between the two countries.

Imagine a scenario where some hot-headed politico-military leaders in the Indian establishment decided to repeat the Balakot incident. With back-up provided by the S-400, this could pose a more serious challenge to the Pakistani military and political leadership as the Indian Air Force could have more flexibility to spare fighter jets for a more aggressive posturing and strike against Pakistan. Pakistan would not sit idle and strike back with more ferocity; but this time the package will be different.

The S-400 with a range of 400 km will have to be deployed in a comfortable zone of security. It needs a standoff of approximately 50 to 100 km from the international border. This gives it an operational range of 300 km or more, which is quite substantial. Pakistan’s counter strike salvo has to be tailored in a manner that minimises the effect of the S-400 while achieving its objective of re-establishing the balance of military power. This package could take many shapes and forms and, unlike Swift Retort, may not remain in single service mode. Pakistan has the option to move up the escalation ladder and respond in multiple domains through a bi- or tri-service application of military power while keeping Strategic Forces operationally deployed for the first strike — cruise missiles like Babar and Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) like Nasr would become handy. TNWs fall into the category of ‘battlefield’, ‘sub-strategic’ or ‘non-strategic’ nuclear weapons and Pakistan’s adoption and operationalisation of these systems is precisely meant to thwart threats posed by any hostile adversary with asymmetric advantage over Pakistan.

Imagine a tri-service response augmented by Nasr and Babur missiles by the Pakistani military against some stupid move by the RSS-dominated military group intoxicated by the S-400; it could be disastrous for the entire region. This is just one scenario. In military strategic assessment and war-gaming, hundreds of such scenarios are played to develop a cohesive and sure-footed response. While the Indian military has deployed the S-400 this week, the Pakistani military hierarchy have been war-gaming its impact from the day the order for the S-400 was placed by India to Russia.

The lessons learnt from the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia has added the element of swarm tactics and drone warfare into the battlefield. Can the S-400 detect and shoot down a swarm of 1,000 drones and aerial robots? These new autonomous and smart weapon systems have started creating a redundancy in larger weapon systems. Pakistan has already acquired a capability in swarm warfare and will definitely use it in the integrated battlefield in the future.

With social media rife with talk on the S-400 and some Indians posing it as a strategic surprise, let some sense prevail on the RSS head honchos that the S-400 has actually brought South Asia one step closer to a nuclear holocaust. Just like Indian aircraft carriers, which will never be used due to their vulnerability, the S-400 will remain another showpiece in the Indian military arsenal for boosting the morale of some AbiNonDones.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, December 23^rd, 2021.

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