Afghanistan’s unfolding humanitarian crisis

An abrupt halt to the development assistance had precipitated the current crisis

Afghanistan is on the verge of collapse and a full-fledged humanitarian crisis. Despite two decades of international assistance, the Afghan government remained unable to develop a sustainable economy. With the ouster of President Ghani and the withdrawal of international forces, the emergent Taliban caretaker setup seems neither willing nor able to address the growing plight of ordinary citizens.

The country is facing multiple challenges including economic meltdown, international isolation, and a breakdown of an already struggling public service delivery mechanism. An abrupt halt to the development assistance which made up at least 75 per cent of the previous government’s budget and the freezing of exiting Afghan assets — amounting to nearly $9.5 billion — had precipitated the current crisis.

On the heels of the American decision to stop the flow of funding to the emergent Taliban setup, the European Union also cut off its development assistance to the country, followed by the IMF and World Bank. The situation on the ground has fast become dire. UN agencies have warned of an outright famine. The World Food Programme has found one in three Afghans is already acutely hungry and an estimated 14 million Afghans in need of food assistance.

Western countries remain reluctant to aid the Taliban regime, after having spent billions of dollars trying to dislodge this same group. However, due to increasing international and domestic criticism, G20 countries have been trying to find ways to send humanitarian aid to those most in need, without it being subjected to the Taliban’s authority or control. The European Union has pledged over $1 billion, and the US has committed a modest $144 million, which is meant to support the work of international humanitarian efforts in the country.

Whether emergency aid can be distributed in a transparent and impartial manner by the Taliban remains to be seen. The Taliban’s record since assuming power does not evoke much confidence. Despite promises of forming an ‘inclusive’ government, the Taliban installed an all-male caretaker cabinet dominated by hardliners. Perhaps they did so due to the fear of attrition by more radical elements within their own folds and to prevent those elements form joining more radical militant outfits, especially the Islamic State.

Nonetheless, the unwillingness of the Afghan Taliban to show more moderation has not won them sympathy amongst the international community at large. Moreover, recent Taliban attempts to prohibit many women from operating as aid workers has become another source of consternation. Such restrictions not only squeeze women out of public life but also imply that incoming aid will reach fewer families in need, particularly women-headed households.

Whether the Taliban will be able to engage with humanitarian agencies to enable aid to reach ordinary civilians may become a litmus test for their increased international recognition. Ultimately, the international community also has the compulsion of engaging with Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers not only to ensure counterterrorism goals, but to help avert complete socio-economic collapse of the country which can destabilise the broader region as well. On their own, humanitarian groups cannot stave off these broader challenges, nor can they prevent nearly 97% of the country sinking below the poverty line over the next six to eight months, as predicted by the UNDP.

Neighbouring countries like Pakistan has been advocating for a wider recognition of the emergent ground realities in Afghanistan, including the need to recognise the Taliban. Pakistan understandably does not want economic collapse in Afghanistan accompanied by another wave of Afghan refugees. However, instead of trying to unreservedly back the hardline Taliban setup, Pakistan could focus on supporting targeted goals, such as working with their caretaker setup to ensure that incoming humanitarian aid is not misappropriated or withheld from those in need. Similarly, Pakistan can play an important role in trying to convince and support the Taliban in addressing other international reservations based on which their desperately needed international recognition hinges.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 12^th, 2021.

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