Afghanistan is on another tryst with destiny. The US military defeat at the hands of rag-tag Taliban — formally the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (EIA) — is hard to gulp down by generals, statesmen, select media and all others who were part of this epic saga.
After the last US soldier left Afghanistan on 30th August 2021, America’s ‘forever war’ has ended. EIA, however, enters multiple wars against instability, poverty, corruption and nation-building. Ironically, EIA continues to be demonised…as if they were/are responsible for all the turmoil in Afghanistan.
With the ANSF in tatters, most technical and essential workforce hunkered down and sizeable part of the Kabuli liberal brigade in holding centres in Doha and elsewhere…the EIA literally has to start from scratch. It will take a while to convince/encourage the non-Taliban Afghans to take charge of their lives and their country, ignoring the consistent anti-Taliban propaganda.
Transition from fighting guerilla war to governance is a big challenge. Although EIA’s recent pronouncements about inclusivity, civil liberties, power-sharing and ‘forgiving and forgetting the past’ are music to many years…much needs to be done right by the World and the EIA.
Taliban’s commitment to their word and deed is unquestionably honest, as the World saw how they implemented their side of the Doha Accord, by not attacking US/Western soldiers and cooperating and coordinating with the withdrawing US forces.
Taliban’s foreign policy outlook will be important for a weary World watching. EIA relations with the US crown Taliban’s international outlook. Contrary to the media-generated perception, President Biden read the situation correctly. Despite pressures from CIA, the Pentagon, members of Congress and Senate and the Washington Beltway community of contractors, he stuck to his withdrawal timeline. In internal briefings, the President could not be countered when he questioned the proponents of ‘no withdrawal’ with his disarming ‘then what’ argument. Those criticising the precipitous manner of US leaving Afghanistan need to know that militaries are slow to deal with the ‘unforeseen’…like the deluge at Kabul Airport. Exit would have always been chaotic. And delaying it would have been another violation of the deal, the US had willingly signed and committed to.
US-EIA ties should not be ‘interest based’ as stated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, but ‘morality and responsibility-based’ given the wreck that the occupation has heaped on Afghanistan. In a fair World, America should have been held to account in war crimes for killing, injuring, maiming and displacing women, children and men with abandon for no fault of theirs. And in a fairer World…where might was not the right…the US and NATO would be paying reparations and damages to Afghanistan for invading/occupying it on insubstantial grounds and forcibly removing its government of the day. And in a rule-based order, the West…the ubiquitous champion of morality…would be offering apology to Afghan people for destroying their lives, killing their dreams and ruining the childhood of innocent ‘kit flyers’. But in a fairer World…
So, the least the US can do is face up to its moral responsibility, unfreeze Afghan assets, provide developmental assistance (as promised in the cited Agreement); continue to provide salary assistance as committed with the Ashraf Ghani government; and use its international clout for Afghanistan reconstruction in coordination with the EIA. The US may find EIA a better, reliable and honest partner and stakeholder than the corrupt coterie of Ashraf Ghani, who not only duped the superpower for so many years with doublespeak and shadowy dealings, but fled Afghanistan with their cash. Dual nationals in ‘fixing failed states’ are dubious characters and Ghani was never an exception. And the US — finding no alternative — knew it all along…. perhaps.
For the US to undermine the EIA would also border racism by overlooking the problems of a non-white and non-Christian Afghan humanity, for whose situation it is responsible in the first place. CIA’s reported reversion to its traditional spy-craft as against counterterrorism would hopefully auger well for Afghanistan.
Europe…tagging the US line irrespective of its moral bearings and fighting the people of Afghanistan (yes EIA was always a popular movement to remain alive all these years) … shares a greater burden. The guilt of killing for fun (first blood by Australian SAS), posing with body parts, bombing marriages and funerals and violating Afghan homes/privacy, cannot be washed by symbolic cooperation with the US in resettlement of some 130,000 airlifted Afghans…who are mostly collaborators, economic migrants or misfit Western-propped liberals. Europe needs to help EIA cope with economic challenges, capacity shortfalls and capability training. Some EU members like Germany are less tainted and should lead.
For the Islamic World, it is decidedly Islamic to discard the US/Western talking points and come forward to help Afghans ‘now’. Saudi Arabia and other rich Muslim nations, under the auspices of OIC, can come up with an ‘Afghan Marshall Plan’ to rebuild, develop and modernise Afghanistan, as a role model. Pakistan can be in the technical lead for this initiative providing manpower, technical expertise and hardware support.
India stands strategically displaced from the Afghan scene for the second time. Ajit Doval and his coterie were instrumental in orchestrating this debacle by aligning with a losing side, ignoring the writing on the wall, ostensibly due to their Hindutva-driven dislike for Muslim Taliban and their animosity towards Pakistan. A pragmatic EIA will encourage India to complete its developmental projects underway in almost all 34 Afghan provinces, without allowing India to use its seven or so consulates again, for activities specifically against Pakistan and China.
China’s main objectives in Afghanistan include containment of instability, neutralising terrorist forces like ETIM and exploiting Afghan mineral riches. A study values Afghanistan’s rare earths/minerals at $3 trillion. Afghanistan has 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earths (lanthanum, cerium and neodymium), and deposits of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury and lithium. China — as a profitable counterweight to US/West — should subsequently rope in Afghanistan in an extended BRI/CPEC.
Russia, benefiting from regional economic system (China, India and Iran) would want to preclude the emergence of US influence and presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia, without getting involved.
In sum, EIA needs to be helped to reap the peace dividend in Afghanistan and beyond. Guilt should galvanise towards a greater future.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 2nd, 2021.
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