Afghan endgame and whimpering in South bloc

RAW operators hurry to leave their nest in Kandahar due to fear of IEA fighters knocking at their door

While the Indian staff (RAW operators) hurried to leave their nest in Kandahar due to fear of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) fighters knocking at their door, Indian politico military leadership and the Doval boys in the South bloc are whimpering. The reason is obvious: the Indian investment in Afghanistan that was built through a hefty amount of $3 billion and created an architecture of intelligence, Bollywood, media and military advisers, is sinking. The infrastructure of isolating Pakistan and targeting it through state-sponsored terrorism has become redundant and India is left with few options.

Indian policymakers led by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), and opinion-makers are desperate to find a way out of this failure. We have carried out an analysis of Indian diplomatic and media manoeuvre in the past four weeks or so which indicate that India is desperate to guard her core interests and is trying hard to launch a diplomatic and informational manoeuvre to achieve her objectives.

India is openly displaying her anxiety and sense of loss by acknowledging that Afghanistan will be controlled by the IEA in coming months. Most opinion-makers in India feel that IEA victory would be a strategic gain for Pakistan, who will become a pivotal player in the Afghan endgame. India is also worried about her investment in Afghanistan, although $3 billion spent over 20 years comes to $150 million per annum. But still, this money was Indian taxpayers’ money.

The Indian media has also been very critical of the United States’ withdrawal. Their opinion-makers and defence analysts are openly shaming President Joe Biden and the US military for abruptly leaving Afghanistan. Apparently, India wanted the US to stay put in Afghanistan so that RAW and her surrogates could keep destabilising Pakistan from their bases there. It is comical how Indian policymakers hoped to keep firing at and targeting Pakistan by using American shoulders.

The Indian mood has swung significantly after the Taliban leadership gave the MEA a cold shoulder in Doha, and the Indian media is now using the term “terrorists” for the Taliban. Some reports suggest that Indian Air Force cargo planes sent to Afghanistan for picking up RAW operators had carried tons of ammunition to help the Afghan military fight the IEA. This is the real face of Indian establishment — on the one hand they want some breakthrough with the Taliban and on the other hand they support military operations against the same group. Some jumpy analysts in India have suggested to Narendra Modi to send thousands of Indian troops to fight the Taliban and protect Indian interests. This is probably born of frustration and the Hindu Kush mountains are a witness to the fact that Afghans have always fought the invaders.

India is also trying to play to regional sensitivities by inciting Afghan neighbours like Iran, Russia, China and Central Asian republics (CAR). The themes being floated by India are meant to create a wedge between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries. For instance, Iran is being reminded of the Shia-Sunni divide and of what happened to the Afghan Shia community in the Taliban’s last stint. Russia, China and CAR are being told of possible spillover of terrorism into their countries.

The Indian media and social media outlets are extensively playing the Pakistan card as if Pakistan is the mother of all problems in Afghanistan and the region, forgetting how India used her intelligence apparatus in Afghanistan to bleed Pakistan white in the past two decades.

India is also targeting the domestic audience in Afghanistan by projecting a bleak picture of human rights and what will happen to the Afghan women after the Taliban takeover. Another dubious theme is that the Taliban are actually a wing of the Punjabi army and will turn Afghans into their slaves. Unfortunately, some RAW-sponsored elements in the PTM are also towing this line.

Joyoti Malhotra’s latest piece in Print magazine has talked of Indian anxieties and how Pakistan will emerge as a pivotal player in the new gambit. She has suggested an alliance with Iran to countercheck Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. The recent visit of Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to Iran and his meeting with President-elect Ibrahim Raisi has been specially mentioned by Malhotra.

Pakistan needs to rebut Indian propaganda through an adroit diplomatic and informational manoeuvre. India has been a spoiler in the region and had drawn disproportionate mileage in Afghanistan to achieve her heinous objectives of destabilising Pakistan. India exploited the space given by the US and the NDS and built an extensive network of intelligence operators who sponsored terrorist activities in Pakistan from their bases in Kandahar, Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad and Herat. India supported the sub-nationalist terrorists as well as political organisations like BLA, BRA, TTP and PTM to keep the Pakistan-Afghanistan border on fire and to destabilise Pakistan.

Actually, India has no love for the people of Afghanistan. She would like the conflict to drag on and retain spaces in Afghanistan to conduct terrorist operations against Pakistan. While India has been running from pillar to post to get help from Russia, China, Iran and CARs, she has already joined the Quad, which has been created to keep a check on China, Russia and even countries like Iran.

India must appreciate that the Afghan endgame has altered the status quo which has seriously restricted Indian space for any meaningful manoeuvre. Pakistan has emerged as a pivot of peace and stability in the region and the so called AfPak is now becoming a reality. IEA leadership has already indicated that they will not allow Afghan territory to be used against Pakistan and would like to join the shared dream of connectivity of the region.

While residents of the South bloc may be having daily nightmares, Afghanistan and Pakistan will march together on a path of friendship, prosperity and regional connectivity.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 14^th, 2021.

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