Climbing up to recover

The country seems to be reaching its threshold for bearing more economic shocks

Pakistan and Pakistanis have developed somewhat of a reputation for their fortitude and resilience. But things such as a poor economy, rising inflation and rampant inflation usually come with a small threshold to absorb shocks. Even though there are now some signs that an economic rebound may be on the cards, Pakistan, at the moment, seems to be reaching its threshold for bearing more economic shocks. The country is currently staring at the possibility of observing Eid-ul-Fitr under lockdown amidst a deadly third wave of the novel coronavirus. Inflation continues to skyrocket and unemployment is rampant whilst a revolving door seems to have been installed for the directors of the country’s finance.

Amidst these grim challenges, the Asian Development Bank has, in an annual publication, forecasted that the annual growth rate of GDP per capita of Pakistan will be negative 0.2% in the fiscal year 2020-21. This is up from the negative 2.7% in the previous fiscal year. The financial institution, which has significant stakes in the country, predicts the country will grow by 4% with real economic growth of 2%. One of the key factors impacting this growth rate is the poor rate of Covid-19 vaccination in the country and a high reluctance amongst the public to get vaccinated - and thus delays in attaining the vaccination target of 70% of the eligible population.

The economy of the country, and the challenges plaguing it, seem to have become a bad joke which is repeated ad nauseam. We are told that there is a plan to retrench the economy from the throes of default and complete capitulation but little of that plan seems to be visible from the street level. The ADB has recommended focussing on jumpstarting entrepreneurship to save the economy and thus the country. The government must look to mobilise funds in safe job-creating enterprises together with the private sector whilst ensuring increased population vaccination to jumpstart the economy safely and prevent our youth bulge from turning into a youth bomb.