Biden’s pullout decision

The Americans bet on a series of lame horses and have been unable to change their bets


April 16, 2021

US President Joe Biden’s changing of the timeline for withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has opened up a can of worms. Although he made clear that US troops would leave the country in less than five months, that is still well past the May 1 deadline agreed with the Taliban under the peace deal the Trump administration negotiated with the militant group. At the same time, at least Biden intends to end the “forever war”, which has now been running since before many younger soldiers were even born.

Biden’s setting of September 11 as the deadline was not coincidental. The date will mark the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on the US, which led to Afghanistan’s invasion. The US won a relatively swift victory over the terrorist group, and if not for former president George W Bush’s bloodlust-driven invasion of Iraq, they would probably have secured Afghanistan. Instead, they stayed, on a mission for which the rationale, in Biden’s own words, was “increasingly unclear”.

But the rationale has actually been quite clear for years. The Americans bet on a series of lame horses and have been unable to change their bets. From the early days of Hamid Karzai to the present, Afghan governments have been plagued by corruption and incompetence. State-building remained minimal, and no real solutions were crafted for defeating or engaging with the Taliban. This is why the Taliban have remained a potent threat and why they still present a danger to the ruling administration. Biden acknowledged that the US “cannot continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan hoping to create the ideal conditions for our withdrawal”. However, the delayed timeline has not gone down well with the Taliban. They have warned that attacks on US and other Resolute Support coalition troops will resume if the withdrawal is not completed by May 1.

The Americans have said openly said they have asked Pakistan to do more, and covertly, they are believed to be leaning in much harder. But expecting Pakistan to be the solution here is a severe miscalculation. There are limitations on our ability to influence the Taliban. Instead, Biden’s team should be working things out with the Taliban and the Afghan government.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 16th, 2021.

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