New census

PTI may become the first govt anywhere in the world to publish two separate census results in the same term in office

The Council of Common Interest approved the results of the 2017 census despite the misgivings of Sindh, opening the door for further debate and delays of post-census activities. Oddly, and perhaps worryingly, the government has also said that a new census will be held towards the end of the year — just seven years after the last one.

PTI may well become the first government anywhere in the world to publish two separate census results in the same term in office. This stands out because the census is normally a once-a-decade exercise, not just in Pakistan but in most countries. The reason here is that the exercise is very expensive. Planning Minister Asad Umar said Rs23 billion would be set aside for the endeavour, which is almost equal to the federal health budget. Demographic changes also generally take a while to become noticeable, and holding censuses too close together may dilute their prominence and impact.

It could also give the impression that the ruling PTI is not satisfied with its election prospects and could use the opportunity to interfere in constituency demarcation to help give its candidates a better chance — Umar said the 2021 census results would not be available until 2023, but they would still be the basis for delimitation for that year’s elections.

That said, if done transparently, a new census might help resolve the debate over one of the most glaring anomalies in the 2017 census — the population of Karachi. The Sindh government — and most Karachiites — see the 14.92 million population figure as a severe undercount. Many believe the actual figure should have been well above 20 million, especially considering Lahore’s population of 11.13 million.

The impacts of such a significant undercount are manifold, but at the simplest level, they create an underfunded city as they reduce Karachi and Sindh’s share of tax revenue while also impacting urban planning decisions for a city that is already overly urban and underly planned. To a lesser extent, Islamabad also has the same problem, with thousands of citizens being unfairly counted in their ‘home’ districts instead of the cities where they live and work, and use public infrastructure, services and utilities.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 14^th, 2021.

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