The way ahead

Bread and butter versus guns are not a new concept and has been a subject of discourse for decades. But it’s more relevant and universally acquired dimension is that these are mutually interactive. This realisation has dawned after years of experience on nations that it is not a question of one or the other but both are equally important and mutually reinforcing. In essence, the defence of a country becomes vulnerable if the economy is weak and unable to offer its people a life that cannot meet even its basic needs.

Similarly, a nation that has a robust economy without the ability to defend would have to rely on a major power or be part of a security group.

For most of its life, Pakistan has faced a monumental challenge of defending itself from the aggressive designs of India. Spillover from the civil war in Afghanistan and interplay of major world powers in the region has adversely impacted our national economy and political stability. The provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have been the worst hit.

External threats and internal weaknesses led successive military and civilian governments to devote a significant portion of the budget to defense and debt repayment. This left very little for development, and consequently Pakistan has been lagging behind in most economic and social indicators even by South Asian standards.

It is, however, encouraging that there is a general consensus in the top civil and military leadership that Pakistan’s best defence is as much the prosperity of its people as the integrity of its borders. This demands a sustained, integrated and comprehensive approach toward security spanning decades.

Pakistan’s own experience has been that despite having a highly professional armed forces and being a nuclear power, due to a weak economy it has to rely on foreign assistance that imperils its national power and inhibits decision-making. The long-term view should be of a full transition of Pakistan away from an aid economy to a globally integrated and productive economy based on a series of reforms in the fiscal and regulatory spheres. The inclusion of socially marginalised groups in the formal economy is equally important.

In the present world if Pakistan has to move forward it has to give top priority to education with a pronounced scientific and technologic bias that is needed to push Pakistan forward. It is unimaginable how knowledge and understanding about the universe, our planet and every facet of life has exponentially improved. Our education system is too outdated and anarchic and has failed to exploit the potential of the younger generation. Politically too, there is not sufficient interest in education. The fate of the new education policy after having met serious criticism by the academicians is not known. It is rare to find matters related to education being focused on in the parliament or by provincial governments in a serious manner. This, though unfortunate, is not surprising because our elite power structure with the exception of a few lack a sound educational foundation.

The recent signs of thaw in India-Pakistan relations augur well for both countries and the region as a whole, provided it is sustained and covers a broader canvas of cooperation. As news is coming out that the India-Pakistan ceasefire was brokered by the UAE after months of engagement in secret talks. According to leaked reports and gauging from the statements being made by leaders of the two countries this is the “beginning of a larger roadmap to forge a lasting peace between the neighbours”. The international community remains wary of the tension that prevails between the two nuclear powers. Moreover, the weak state of Pakistan’s economy and given that India’s too is going through a difficult phase it is not surprising that a major rethink by New Delhi of its Pakistan policy was considered necessary. The circumstances are such that it is possible that these moves may lead to the High Commissioners of the two countries returning back to their assignments and forging a broader and more lasting relationship. This would involve opening of the borders for trade, tourism and family reunions. There is potential for the natural pathways for trade and commerce to be utilised through regional cooperation on a wider and deeper scale. Improvement in relations with India would contribute in moving toward resolution to the Kashmir issue.

In a recent seminar organised by the think tank led by the adviser, Moeed Yusuf, Prime Minister Imran Khan and COAS General Bajwa clearly stated that Pakistan seeks good relations with India. The tone and substance of the speeches of these leaders spelled out that Pakistan seeks an honourable settlement of the Kashmir issue even if it may take years. Meanwhile, they should conduct as good neighbours and engage in areas of common interest.

The region as a whole will experience an Afghanistan without American presence after 20 years.

The Biden administration’s priority is that Pakistan focuses on peace in Afghanistan by pushing the Taliban leadership to be more accommodating. India has realised that it needs to focus on China rather than fritter away its energy on Pakistan. How this would play out with the Chinese leadership has yet to be determined. Pakistan will have to do a lot of balancing as its relationship with China is too important and strategic and needs to be robustly maintained.

The region would ultimately benefit if a positive change in relations between India and Pakistan does materialise. There are myriad cross-border issues related to security, the economy and climate change that can best be addressed if the relations move toward normalisation. We have talked of Pakistan being on the crossroads connecting Russia and Central Asia, the Middle East and South and South East Asia. But so far, we have failed to realise and sustain that vision due to the chaotic conditions in Afghanistan and inimical relations with India.

The government is visualising an improved internal situation and an outwardly engaged Pakistan. If the right policies are faithfully implemented with the support of the opposition it could bring enormous economic and other benefits to the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 24^th, 2021.

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