It has been a year since the US and the Taliban reached a historic agreement in Doha to end Washington’s longest-ever military campaign. The deal, though imperfect, was among the few notable achievements of the Trump administration. It helped lay out a timeline for withdrawal and laid out binding conditions for peace on the Taliban. Unfortunately, among the imperfections were the hard timelines and the enforceability of the conditions on the Taliban. Analysts — hawks and doves alike — had misgivings about them and worried that they were done with politics, rather than security, in mind.
Those imperfections are now being tested under the new US administration which has ordered a review of the deal. However, with a few exceptions, the US and Taliban still seem to be following their respective sides of the deal, something that both have acknowledged recently. This makes it clear that neither side wants the endless war to continue. The new US administration’s focus seems to be more along the lines of a renegotiation with similar targets but more refined language. But this is still a concern for the Taliban, and for a good reason. They got a pretty good deal the first time around. There is little that the US can offer them directly to encourage a renegotiation. Indirectly, however, the US does have an ace up its sleeve.
The Afghan government was never on board with the deal. Over the last year, for good and bad reasons, Kabul has actively tried to undermine it. Even when nudged by the US, Kabul has done the bare minimum and continues with military campaigns against the Taliban while throwing spanners in the works of their own negotiations with the Taliban in Doha. Without a deal between Kabul and the Taliban, the Doha deal is meaningless in terms of achieving peace in Afghanistan. However, the Kabul government remains a virtual puppet. It exists because the US is letting it. All Washington needs to do is turn that nudge into a push, and Kabul will adopt a good faith attitude towards the Taliban.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 2nd, 2021.
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