Hafeez Sheikh, Sania Nishtar among PTI Senate nominees

Faisal Vawda and Shibli Faraz are also among the nominees

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf on Friday announced names of candidates chosen to contest the upcoming Senate elections on March 3.

Federal Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry, in a series of tweets, said the party had finalised the names of most of its candidates.

تحرک انصاف نے سینٹ کی زیادہ تر نشستوں پر اپنے امیدواروں کے نام فائنل کر لئے ہیں اسلام آباد سے عبدالحفیظ شیخ اور فوزیہ ارشد تحریک انصاف کی امیدوار فائنل کی گئ ہیں۔۔

— Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) February 12, 2021

The federal minister said Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and Fouzia Arshad are among the party’s Senate hopefuls from Islamabad, while from Sindh, the party has decided to nominate Faisal Vawda and Saifullah Abro, the latter on a technocrat seat.

Read: Govt decides to promulgate ordinance on Senate open vote

تحرک انصاف نے سینٹ کی زیادہ تر نشستوں پر اپنے امیدواروں کے نام فائنل کر لئے ہیں اسلام آباد سے عبدالحفیظ شیخ اور فوزیہ ارشد تحریک انصاف کی امیدوار فائنل کی گئ ہیں۔۔

— Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) February 12, 2021

سندہ سے فیصل واڈا سینٹ کا الیکشن لڑیں گے اور ٹیکنو کریٹ نشست پر سیف اللہ ابڑو تحریک انصاف کے امیدوار ہوں گے۔ جبکہ بلوچستان سے عبدالقادر کا نام فائنل کیا گیا ہے

— Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) February 12, 2021

From Punjab, PTI's Saifullah Niazi, provincial spokesperson Dr Zarqa and Barrister Ali Zafar are among those nominated, with the remaining names to be revealed later.

پنجاب سےسیف اللہ نیازی ڈاکٹر زرقا اور بیرسٹر علی ظفر امیدوار ہوں گے، باقی نشستوں کا اعلان بعد میں ہو گا

— Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) February 12, 2021

PTI has also decided to nominate incumbent information minister Shibli Faraz, Mohsin Aziz, Dost Mohammad, PM's aide Dr Sania Nishtar and Farzana Rauf, added the information minister in his tweet.

خیبر پختونخواہ سے شبلی فراز، محسن عزیز، دوست محمد، ثانیہ نشتر اور فرزانہ کا نام حتمی فہرست میں شامل کیا گیا ہے باقی نشستوں پر اعلان بعد میں ہو گا۔

— Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) February 12, 2021

The numbers game

With a much-anticipated election just around the corner, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf seems poised to emerge as the largest party in the Senate. But the 28 seats it is likely to end up with will not be enough to dominate the 100-member upper house and the ruling party can expect encounter stiff resistance to persist as it tries to get its bills to sail through.

Half of the Senate’s current members will complete their six-year term on March 11, leaving 48 seats up for grabs. While the upper house currently has a total of 104 members – half of whom retire every three years – the merger of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa means the four seats reserved for the former will retire with the Senators who hold them.

Although PTI is expected to secure a majority in the Senate following the upcoming election, full control of the house will likely elude it. With a projected 19 seats, the Pakistan People Party is expected become the second-largest party, followed closely by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz with 17 seats. This means two of the PTI’s staunchest political opponents and key constituents of the anti-government Pakistan Democratic Movement will almost match the ruling party in the upper house.

Even if it counts on its allies, which include the Balochistan Awami Party that is likely to end up with 13 seats, the numbers game in the Senate is likely to be more or less even with the combined opposition. Although this will prevent the latter from bringing in its own Senate chairman, it will still mean the PTI will have to convince both its allies and the opposition to pass even the simplest legislation.

Since the electoral college for the Senate elections comprises existing members of the National and provincial assemblies, results usually boil down to respective parties’ current presence in the legislative bodies. However, rare is at may be, there have been instances in the past where certain assembly members have voted against their party compatriots.

Based on its current numbers in the National and provincial assemblies, PTI is likely to retain the seats of its retiring senators and win twice as many new ones. The party currently has 14 seats in the Senate, seven of which will be vacated on March 11.

In the upcoming election, PTI expects to gain 10 senators from its home ground of K-P, another six from Punjab, two each from Sindh and Islamabad, and one from Balochistan. In total, the ruling party will likely end up securing 21 seats, bringing its total strength in the upper house to 28.

PPP, meanwhile, is expected to lose two seats once eight of its senators retire. All of them are from Sindh and the party is expected to retain only five seats following the upcoming election. Thus, its strength in Senate will reduce from 21 to 19.

It is PML-N, however, which seems poised to suffer the biggest blow. More than half of the PML-N’s 29 senators – 17 to be precise, all from Punjab – will retire come March 11. Based on its current strength in other assemblies, it is expected to regain only five seats. PML-N’s overall strength, thus, will be reduced to 17 as well, forcing it to cede the crown of the largest opposition party in Senate to PPP.

On paper, the third key PDM constituent, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl, is expected to marginally improve its position following the Senate election. Although two of its senators, one from K-P and the other from Balochistan, will retire on March 11, the party is expected to retain both seats and gain an extra one. But following the rift that emerged in the party, the JUI-F could yet suffer some shock.

As for the rest, the Muttahida Qaumi movement is expect to lose its Senate strength by two as four of its five senators are retiring and it is only expected to regain two seats. Following the retirement of its amir Sirajul Haq from the Senate, Jamaat-e-Islami will have only one member in the upper house.

If the Grand Democratic Alliance secures one seat from Sindh, it will double its strength to two. The Balochistan National Party-Mengal, meanwhile, is expected to secure two new seats, as are the National Party and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party.

Since the final numbers will emerge only after the election results are announced, political experts project that the opposition parties’ newly formed alliance – Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – could win an additional seat in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. With the support of ANP, PPP and PML-N, one seat can be won in K-P and n Balochistan through the MMA, BNP-M, PkMAP and ANP coalition.

Nomination papers

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) earlier began issuing nomination papers for the Senate elections, instructing the candidates not to spend more than Rs1.5 million, the Provincial Election Commissioner Quetta confirmed.

The provision of nomination papers commenced on the directive issued by the ECP Secretary to all provincial offices.

All political parties and candidates were reminded by the ECP to attach party tickets at the time of submission, while independent candidates are free not to attach party tickets.