China’s peak Lunar New Year air travel season fizzles as COVID cases rise

Citizens are thinking twice before traveling for the holiday season due to restrictions

Many Chinese citizens have reluctantly decided against booking a flight for the mid- February Lunar New Year holidays. To limit the spread of COVID-19, the government has discouraged travel in what is normally the busiest time of the year. Those who are going anyway must present a nucleic acid test with negative results taken in the past seven days before departing.

Data from travel analytics firm ForwardKeys, provided to Reuters, states airline bookings made as of Jan. 19 for Lunar New Year travel have plunged 73.7% compared with the holiday period in 2019. Bookings had been down 57.3% from 2019 as of Jan. 1, with the situation deteriorating due to outbreaks leading to tighter restrictions.

“Even though I’m in a low-risk area, people in my hometown would get a bit nervous when they hear that I just got back from Beijing. It’s just too much trouble,” says Iphie Nie, a 30-year-old designer based in Beijing, who usually travels to visit her family in her hometown of Shenzhen during this time.

Beijing has reported new Covid-19 cases for 11 consecutive days and nationwide case numbers, while tiny by the standards of most Western countries, are at a 10-month high.

Many employees working for state-owned companies or government agencies have been told not to travel without management approval, state media reported.

Some people who already bought air tickets are considering cancelling.

“I’ve already booked a ticket but I still haven’t made up my mind yet,” said Kathy Qi, a 29-year-old office worker in Beijing from Henan.

A report by aviation data provider Variflight predicts a reduction of 6 million trips over Lunar New Year as a result of the COVID test requirement and home quarantine rules, with about 50% of travelers likely to cancel.

Ticket prices, normally at their peak during Lunar New Year, have plunged. As of Jan. 25, flight tickets sold on Qunar.com, a Beijing-based online travel platform, averaged 651.36 yuan ($100) during the holiday, the lowest level in five years, the company said on Monday.

In China, domestic airline capacity had recovered to 2019 levels by the end of last year when there were almost no cases, though ticket prices remained low.

Luya You, transportation analyst at BOCOM International, said a full recovery of Chinese airline revenue to pre-crisis levels would be delayed to the second or third quarter this year, compared with her earlier assessment of January or February.

ForwardKeys said travelers had been booking tickets later than usual, with 61% of Chinese doing so within four days of departure from March to December 2020, up from 52% in 2019.

“This is the one statistic that gives some hope for travel this Chinese New Year, as a rush in last-minute bookings is a definite possibility if the recent outbreak is brought under control soon,” ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh said.