As Rome embraces winter

Italy is going through a terrible autumn. The number of new Covid-19 cases rose from just over a 100 a day in summer to over 40,000 in mid-November. To some extent this reflects higher testing levels, including of people without symptoms. However, other numbers confirm that Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc. The percentage of swabs coming in positive is now almost 30% as opposed to below 1% in summer. There were 37,000 Covid patients in hospitals, of which around 10% in intensive care — numbers similar to those of March and April this year. And most depressingly, the number of daily deaths is approaching 1,000 — similar to what it was in the height of the pandemic.

So it seems that we are back to where we were. The slowdown of the disease that was achieved by two and a half months of lockdown in spring was apparently lost during the summer. As people went for holidays, there was a feeling that the pandemic was over. Standard operating practices (SOPs) were routinely ignored and people gathered in large numbers without face masks or even a pretense of social distancing. As predicted by virologists, Covid came back with a vengeance — first effecting large numbers of young people who were the main group ignoring guidelines, and then quickly spreading to more vulnerable groups, particularly the old and those with other medical preconditions.

The government responded as best as it could — with increasingly stringent guidelines. In early November, the government imposed new restrictions including the compulsory wearing of masks outdoors, closing of all bars and restaurants at 6PM, and a total curfew at 10PM. There are also restrictions on travel between different parts of the country — in particular to and from regions that were classified as “most affected”. The hope was that with these measures, the country would be able to control the second spike and celebrate Christmas and New Year with some semblance of normality.

The restrictions had some impact. The curve of new infections showed signs of bending but the number of patients in intensive care and deaths carried on rising. Last week the government announced restrictions that will be in place over the holiday season from December 21 to January 6 — and the news was not good. There will be further restrictions on travel, limited opening hours for all commercial enterprises, bars and eateries; and a limit of six to eight people even at private lunches and dinners. Museums and sport facilities such as gyms and ski resorts will remain closed.

All this may not sound like a huge sacrifice. After all, a creamy cappuccino at a nice bar, a leisurely dinner in a scenic piazza, whizzing down ski slopes in the Alps or the Dolomites, or a Christmas lunch with 20-30 people around a table are the luxuries of life. And can one do without luxuries? Well yes, of course one can. But much of the Italian economy is built around these things. Services account for two-thirds of the GDP with a lot of it coming from top-end products such as fashion, fine catering and sports. Another 20% comes from sophisticated industrial products such as bespoke furniture, precision machine tools and luxury sports cars. These products are not just for Italians. The bespoke furniture and gold plated taps are exported to the Gulf countries, the Ferraris and Lamborghinis go the United States and China, and Italian clothes, shoes and accessories are to be found in every fashionable mall around the world. Moreover, every year some 90 million tourists visit Italy to enjoy these luxuries.

The restrictions and the associated drop in demand and consumption will have a huge economic impact. Many hotels, small shops, bars and restaurants and factories have already closed. Many more were facing a difficult time after the first lockdown and without the Christmas/New Year boost in revenues they will now close. Already many shops in the city centre in Rome and in the big shopping malls were shut and displaying “For Rent” or “For Sale” signs. There will be many more next year.

There are also many other points of pain. Christmas is the quintessential family festival. Not being able to celebrate in the traditional way is a real blow, especially to children and old people who eagerly look forward to this time of the year to be with family. Moreover, many Italians working in other countries will most likely stay away as travelling means taking a Covid test before departure and quarantine for two weeks before they can see friends and family. This level of isolation, coming on top of months of working from home, is creating deep psychological problems. Among the most alarming consequences of this is rising domestic violence — much of it directed against women.

There are also a lot of uncertainties about the education system. Secondary schools and higher education institutions have been shut since March and are relying on distance learning. They will most likely continue to remain shut for much of 2021. Kindergartens and primary schools opened in September but it is no guarantee that they will remain if cases continue to rise. Not being able to attend schools, colleges or universities is having an enormous impact on the psychological wellbeing of young people.

Covid-19 is also creating political tensions. There are ongoing battles about whether the government is being too restrictive, listening too much to scientists and health workers, and not giving sufficient weight to economic factors. There are also ferocious political fights about tax incentives and welfare payments, and above all, about the use of the billions of euros of EU funds that will soon be available for stimulating a recovery. At the same time there is serious concern that many decisions are being made through prime ministerial decrees without due legislative processes.

Much hope was pinned on the arrival of an effective vaccine but the news is that some five million doses will be available in the early months of next year. This is enough for less than 10% of the population and will be primarily used for priority groups such as health workers, those living or working in old peoples’ homes, and for those over 80 years of age. As a result of this limited coverage, virologists are already talking about a third spike in the early months of next year.

Difficult and bleak times lie ahead!

Published in The Express Tribune, December 16^th, 2020.

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