Double jeopardy

Although there have been efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19, as prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO), global cases continue to increase. Transcending national boundaries, the virus has proven that we are equal in our fight against the pandemic. With nearly all countries affected, it appears that the economic consequences in particular are enormous and felt most by those already marginalised. It is evident that the implications are beyond the realms of health venturing into the economic and social domains, and other costs, which will become apparent with time and space. In essence, its impact will vary across different socio-economic and income groups.

In developing countries, it is problematic to measure even the short-term immediate impact. This is due to a lack of accurate data reflecting the inadequate testing facilities and also because victims may have other pre-existing conditions, making it difficult to establish the primary cause of death. Moreover, countries with high a human development index have reasonable hospitals, beds, physicians and nurses as opposed to those with a low index. This severely impacts a country’s ability to respond to the current situation making some countries less susceptible to the Covid-19 crisis, meaning that people, who are already vulnerable, inevitably get hit the hardest.

A developing country’s situation significantly differs from that of developed countries like the US or European countries as majority of the population lives in extreme poverty. In Pakistan’s case, poverty and inequality have exacerbated the rate of transmission and mortality. With workers continuing to fall sick, factories remaining shut and healthcare systems struggling to cope; Covid-19 has had dire implications as it is coupled with factors such as lack of access to adequate medical care, weak public health infrastructures, cramped housing conditions and population density further inhibiting people from practicing social distancing and isolation.

The absence of social safety net and protection systems has also been found to increase aftershocks. Moreover, with macro-economic stabilisation underway the socio-economic ramifications are significant for Pakistan especially when prior to Covid-19, as many as 4.5 million people were estimated to fall below the poverty line and more than 1.5 million people lost their jobs in the past year. A depressing outlook for the economy with declining sales, incapacitated purchasing power, youth with limited or no opportunities; an average family will no longer be able to afford a house. It appears a lockdown in a country already struggling with its economy only has potential for further economic fallout.

Additionally, people in poverty often lack disposable cash or savings and a lack of labour contracts, inadequate legal protection and poor law enforcement heightens the problem for the poor. At a micro-level the hardest hit segment is that of daily-wage and self-employed workers who have lost their livelihood and wages, seriously curbing their means of their feeding families, ability to pay rent, bills, school fees or medical expenses. The economically marginalised fall victims with their increased vulnerabilities and/or risk other threats to their health. Weakness in an impoverished social system means outbreaks may go undetected longer with limited capacity to handle cases. Low income countries are thus particularly challenged due to the general downward mobility and uncertainty.

Poverty thus makes a nation particularly vulnerable to a crisis and its ability to respond to existing and added stressors. Government interventions to mitigate the risk of a pandemic of such magnitude should thus consciously cater to the underlying susceptibilities of socio-economic structures. It appears that pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities have only worsened with Covid-19. Thereby the response measures should consider the differential impacts on the needs of the population, their diminishing resilience and the context within which they are situated. Being more than just a health crisis, it can be assumed that the aftermath of the pandemic will leave deep scars and have devastating consequences for the current global world order.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 14^th, 2020.

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