The pullout plan

The US has said that its plans to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan ahead of schedule, implying that it should be able to complete the withdrawal earlier than the April 2021 deadline agreed to with the Taliban. But even if the Pentagon is ahead of the planned schedule, the rush to meet a ‘new’ deadline is not based on the situation in Afghanistan. Trump recently told the media that he wanted the troops home “as soon as reasonable”, although he did not give a definitive date. Yet, the fact that he gave no date implies that he wants them home sooner than April 2021.

Whether or not Trump paid any heed to the advice from his military commanders is unclear. What is clear is that he believes that bringing the troops home before the elections in November will give him a talking point that might get him a few votes. Unfortunately, the potential fallout of a haphazard withdrawal could create even more problems in the country. Just look at what happened with the Syria withdrawal, where Trump based his orders on political considerations rather than on military and regional security ones. Some leaders are able to ride their luck and make reckless decisions work. Trump has not shown himself to be one of them.

The US is still in a position to push the Afghan government to reach a peace deal with the Taliban, but this appears to have dropped off Trump’s priority list as it is not an issue for his voters. For now, it is the Ghani government that is not coming to the table. But if the US stops funding the Afghan security forces, it will be the Taliban who will walk away. Why negotiate when they can just win the war in a walkover.

Unfortunately, such an outcome will not be good for anyone. Despite recent statements from the Taliban suggesting the group would — by the standards of an ultraconservative religious party — be more progressive as part of a future government, we must worry what would happen if they return to absolute power, as was the case before the US invasion in 2001.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 31^st, 2020.

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